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| Content Provider | World Health Organization (WHO)-Global Index Medicus |
|---|---|
| Author | Wassink, Annemarie M. J. Cook, Nancy R. Visseren, Frank L. J. Ridker, Paul M. Steyerberg, Ewout W. Paynter, Nina P. Van Der Graaf, Yolanda Dorresteijn, Johannes A. N. |
| Description | Author Affiliation: Dorresteijn JA ( Department of Vascular Medicine, University Medical Center Utrecht, PO Box 85500, 3508 GA Utrecht, Netherlands.); |
| Abstract | Objectives To predict treatment effects for individual patients based on data from randomised trials, taking rosuvastatin treatment in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease as an example, and to evaluate the net benefit of making treatment decisions for individual patients based on a predicted absolute treatment effect. Setting As an example, data were used from the Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention (JUPITER) trial, a randomised controlled trial evaluating the effect of rosuvastatin 20 mg daily versus placebo on the occurrence of cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, arterial revascularisation, admission to hospital for unstable angina, or death from cardiovascular causes). Population 17 802 healthy men and women who had low density lipoprotein cholesterol levels of less than 3.4 mmol/L and high sensitivity C reactive protein levels of 2.0 mg/L or more. Methods Data from the Justification for the Use of Statins in Prevention trial were used to predict rosuvastatin treatment effect for individual patients based on existing risk scores (Framingham and Reynolds) and on a newly developed prediction model. We compared the net benefit of prediction based rosuvastatin treatment (selective treatment of patients whose predicted treatment effect exceeds a decision threshold) with the net benefit of treating either everyone or no one. Results The median predicted 10 year absolute risk reduction for cardiovascular events was 4.4% (interquartile range 2.6-7.0%) based on the Framingham risk score, 4.2% (2.5-7.1%) based on the Reynolds score, and 3.9% (2.5-6.1%) based on the newly developed model (optimal fit model). Prediction based treatment was associated with more net benefit than treating everyone or no one, provided that the decision threshold was between 2% and 7%, and thus that the number willing to treat (NWT) to prevent one cardiovascular event over 10 years was between 15 and 50. Conclusions Data from randomised trials can be used to predict treatment effect in terms of absolute risk reduction for individual patients, based on a newly developed model or, if available, existing risk scores. The value of such prediction of treatment effect for medical decision making is conditional on the NWT to prevent one outcome event. Trial registration number Clinicaltrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00239681","term_id":"NCT00239681"}}NCT00239681. |
| ISSN | 09598138 |
| e-ISSN | 17561833 |
| Journal | BMJ (British Medical Journal) |
| Volume Number | 343 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | British Medical Journal Publishing Group |
| Publisher Date | 2011-10-01 |
| Publisher Place | Great Britain (UK) |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Cardiovascular Diseases Prevention & Control Fluorobenzenes Therapeutic Use Hydroxymethylglutaryl-CoA Reductase Inhibitors Pyrimidines Randomized Controlled Trials As Topic Statistics & Numerical Data Sulfonamides C-Reactive Protein Metabolism Epidemiology Cholesterol, LDL Data Interpretation, Statistical Hospitalization Models, Biological Models, Statistical Patient Selection Primary Prevention Risk Factors Rosuvastatin Calcium Randomized Controlled Trial Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Medicine |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
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