NDLI: Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change.

Content Provider	World Health Organization (WHO)-Global Index Medicus
Author	Kay, S. Caesar, J. Wolf, J. Bricheno, L. Nicholls, R. J. Saiful Islam, A. K. M. Haque, A. Pardaens, A. Lowe, J. A.
Spatial Coverage	India
Description	Country affiliation: United kingdom Author Affiliation: Kay S ( Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK. suka@pml.ac.uk.)
Abstract	Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5th assessment modelling of sea level rise and estimates of subsidence rates from the EU IMPACT2C project suggest that sea level in the GBM delta region may rise by 0.63 to 0.88 m by 2090, with some studies suggesting this could be up to 0.5 m higher if potential substantial melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is included. These sea level rise scenarios lead to increased frequency of high water coastal events. Any effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storms can also have an effect on extreme sea levels. A shelf-sea model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to investigate how the combined effect of sea level rise and changes in other environmental conditions under climate change may alter the frequency of extreme sea level events for the period 1971 to 2099. The model was forced using atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions derived from climate model projections and the future scenario increase in sea level was applied at its ocean boundary. The model results show an increased likelihood of extreme sea level events through the 21st century, with the frequency of events increasing greatly in the second half of the century: water levels that occurred at decadal time intervals under present-day model conditions occurred in most years by the middle of the 21st century and 3-15 times per year by 2100. The heights of the most extreme events tend to increase more in the first half of the century than the second. The modelled scenarios provide a case study of how sea level rise and other effects of climate change may combine to produce a greatly increased threat to life and property in the GBM delta by the end of this century.
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	20507887
Issue Number	7
Volume Number	17
e-ISSN	20507895
Journal	Environmental Science: Processes & Impacts
Language	English
Publisher	Royal Society of Chemistry
Publisher Date	2015-07-01
Publisher Place	Great Britain (UK)
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Subject Keyword	Discipline Environmental Health Climate Change Environmental Monitoring Methods Models, Theoretical Seawater Analysis Climate Conservation Of Natural Resources India Oceans And Seas Journal Article Research Support, Non-u.s. Gov't
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Environmental Chemistry Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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