NDLI: Rising challenge of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in China: a predictive study using Markov modeling

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Li, Bing-Ying Shi, Wen-Pei Zhou, Chang-Ming Zhao, Qi Diwan, Vinod K Zheng, Xu-Bin Li, Yang Hoffner, Sven Xu, Biao
Abstract	Background Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is on the rise in China. This study used a dynamic Markov model to predict the longitudinal trends of MDR-TB in China by 2050 and to assess the effects of alternative control measures. Methods Eight states of tuberculosis transmission were set up in the Markov model using a hypothetical cohort of 100 000 people. The prevalence of MDR-TB and bacteriologically confirmed drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB+) were simulated and MDR-TB was stratified into whether the disease was treated with the recommended regimen or not. Results Without any intervention changes to current conditions, the prevalence of DS-TB+ was projected to decline 67.7% by 2050, decreasing to 20 per 100 000 people, whereas that of MDR-TB was expected to triple to 58/100 000. Furthermore, 86.2% of the MDR-TB cases would be left untreated by the year of 2050. In the case where MDR-TB detection rate reaches 50% or 70% at 5% per year, the decline in prevalence of MDR-TB would be 25.9 and 36.2% respectively. In the case where treatment coverage was improved to 70% or 100% at 5% per year, MDR-TB prevalence in 2050 would decrease by 13.8 and 24.1%, respectively. If both detection rate and treatment coverage reach 70%, the prevalence of MDR-TB by 2050 would be reduced to 28/100 000 by a 51.7% reduction. Conclusions MDR-TB, especially untreated MDR-TB, would rise rapidly under China’s current MDR-TB control strategies. Interventions designed to promote effective detection and treatment of MDR-TB are imperative in the fights against MDR-TB epidemics.
Related Links	https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s40249-020-00682-7.pdf
Ending Page	8
Page Count	8
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	20499957
DOI	10.1186/s40249-020-00682-7
Journal	Infectious Diseases of Poverty
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	9
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2020-06-08
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Infectious Diseases Tropical Medicine Public Health Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis Markov chains Prevalence Prevention and control
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Infectious Diseases Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Journal Impact Factor	4.8/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	5/2023

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