NDLI: Graphing and reporting heterogeneous treatment effects through reference classes

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Watson, James A. Holmes, Chris C.
Abstract	Background Exploration and modelling of heterogeneous treatment effects as a function of baseline covariates is an important aspect of precision medicine in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Randomisation generally guarantees the internal validity of an RCT, but heterogeneity in treatment effect can reduce external validity. Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects is usually done via a predictive model for individual outcomes, where one searches for interactions between treatment allocation and important patient baseline covariates. However, such models are prone to overfitting and multiple testing and typically demand a transformation of the outcome measurement, for example, from the absolute risk in the original RCT to log-odds of risk in the predictive model. Methods We show how reference classes derived from baseline covariates can be used to explore heterogeneous treatment effects via a two-stage approach. We first estimate a risk score which captures on a single dimension some of the heterogeneity in outcomes of the trial population. Heterogeneity in the treatment effect can then be explored via reweighting schemes along this axis of variation. This two-stage approach bypasses the search for interactions with multiple covariates, thus protecting against multiple testing. It also allows for exploration of heterogeneous treatment effects on the original outcome scale of the RCT. This approach would typically be applied to multivariable models of baseline risk to assess the stability of average treatment effects with respect to the distribution of risk in the population studied. Case study We illustrate this approach using the single largest randomised treatment trial in severe falciparum malaria and demonstrate how the estimated treatment effect in terms of absolute mortality risk reduction increases considerably in higher risk strata. Conclusions ‘Local’ and ‘tilting’ reweighting schemes based on ranking patients by baseline risk can be used as a general approach for exploring, graphing and reporting heterogeneity of treatment effect in RCTs. Trial registration ISRCTN clinical trials registry: ISRCTN50258054 . Prospectively registered on 22 July 2005.
Related Links	https://trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s13063-020-04306-1.pdf
Ending Page	8
Page Count	8
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	17456215
DOI	10.1186/s13063-020-04306-1
Journal	Trials
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	21
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2020-05-07
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Medicine Public Health Biomedicine Statistics for Life Sciences Health Sciences Heterogeneous treatment effects Reference class forecasting Randomised controlled trials Prognostic risk score Medicine/Public Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Medicine Pharmacology (medical)
Journal Impact Factor	2/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	2.1/2023

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

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