| Content Provider | Springer Nature : BioMed Central |
|---|---|
| Author | Mertens, Elly Ocira, Junior Sagastume, Diana Vasquez, Maria Salve Vandevijvere, Stefanie Peñalvo, José L. |
| Abstract | Objective To forecast the annual burden of type 2 diabetes and related socio-demographic disparities in Belgium until 2030. Methods This study utilized a discrete-event transition microsimulation model. A synthetic population was created using 2018 national register data of the Belgian population aged 0–80 years, along with the national representative prevalence of diabetes risk factors obtained from the latest (2018) Belgian Health Interview and Examination Surveys using Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) as inputs to the Simulation of Synthetic Complex Data (simPop) model. Mortality information was obtained from the Belgian vital statistics and used to calculate annual death probabilities. From 2018 to 2030, synthetic individuals transitioned annually from health to death, with or without developing type 2 diabetes, as predicted by the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score, and risk factors were updated via strata-specific transition probabilities. Results A total of 6722 [95% UI 3421, 11,583] new cases of type 2 diabetes per 100,000 inhabitants are expected between 2018 and 2030 in Belgium, representing a 32.8% and 19.3% increase in T2D prevalence rate and DALYs rate, respectively. While T2D burden remained highest for lower-education subgroups across all three Belgian regions, the highest increases in incidence and prevalence rates by 2030 are observed for women in general, and particularly among Flemish women reporting higher-education levels with a 114.5% and 44.6% increase in prevalence and DALYs rates, respectively. Existing age- and education-related inequalities will remain apparent in 2030 across all three regions. Conclusions The projected increase in the burden of T2D in Belgium highlights the urgent need for primary and secondary preventive strategies. While emphasis should be placed on the lower-education groups, it is also crucial to reinforce strategies for people of higher socioeconomic status as the burden of T2D is expected to increase significantly in this population segment. |
| Related Links | https://pophealthmetrics.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12963-024-00328-y.pdf |
| Ending Page | 10 |
| Page Count | 10 |
| Starting Page | 1 |
| File Format | HTM / HTML |
| ISSN | 14787954 |
| DOI | 10.1186/s12963-024-00328-y |
| Journal | Population Health Metrics |
| Issue Number | 1 |
| Volume Number | 22 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | BioMed Central |
| Publisher Date | 2024-04-23 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Public Health Epidemiology Research Methodology Health Services Research Diabetes Microsimulation Burden Forecast |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health Epidemiology |
| Journal Impact Factor | 3.2/2023 |
| 5-Year Journal Impact Factor | 3.3/2023 |
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