NDLI: Estimated projection of oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer deaths in Spain to 2044

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Infante-Cossio, Pedro Duran-Romero, Antonio-Jose Castaño-Seiquer, Antonio Martinez-De-Fuentes, Rafael Pereyra-Rodriguez, Jose-Juan
Abstract	Background Oral cavity cancer (OCC) and oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) are two common malignancies whose mortality is worryingly increasing worldwide. However, few studies have estimated the mortality trends for these cancers in the coming years. This study analysed the mortality rates for OCC and OPC observed between 1980 and 2019 to generate a predictive model for the next 25 years in Spain. Methods Mid-year population data and death certificates for the period 1980–2019 were obtained from the Spanish National Institute of Statistics. The Nordpred program (Norwegian Cancer Registry, Oslo, Norway) was used to calculate adjusted mortality rates as well as estimated mortality projections with an age-period-cohort model for the period 2020–2044. Results The specific mortality rate per 100,000 inhabitants for OCC decreased from 2.36 (1980–1984) to 2.17 (2015–2019) and is expected to decline to 1.68 (2040–2044), particularly in males. For OPC, mortality rates rose from 0.67 (1980–1984) to 1.23 (2015–2019) and are projected to drop to 0.71 (2040–2044). In the group of females > 65 years predictions showed rising mortality rates for both OCC and OPC. The predictive model projects more deaths in females than in males for OCC in the period 2040–2044, while deaths for OPC will decrease in males and gradually increase in females. Conclusions Although OCC mortality rates have been found to decrease in males in the last observed decades, there is still room to improve them in females > 65 years in the future by promoting campaigns against smoking and alcohol consumption. OPC mortality will become a growing health problem. Vaccination campaigns for the prevention of human papillomavirus-associated cancers may have a long-term impact on the mortality of these cancers, which should be evaluated in upcoming studies. Clinical relevance Our findings highlighted the importance of closely monitoring OCC and OPC mortality rates in the coming years by age group and sex, and the need to continue preventive measures against the main known risk factors, such as tobacco, alcohol, and human papillomavirus infection.
Related Links	https://bmcoralhealth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12903-022-02487-6.pdf
Ending Page	9
Page Count	9
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14726831
DOI	10.1186/s12903-022-02487-6
Journal	BMC Oral Health
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	22
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2022-10-14
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Dentistry Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery Projection Mortality Oral cavity cancer Oropharynx cancer Spain
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Dentistry
Journal Impact Factor	2.6/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.2/2023

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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