| Content Provider | Springer Nature : BioMed Central |
|---|---|
| Author | Zhai, Shibo Zhang, Shuo Ma, Xinzhe Gong, Yongchao Hou, Zhiyong Chen, Wei Ma, Lijie |
| Abstract | Background Chronic pain following calcaneal fracture surgery substantially diminishes patients' quality of life, yet effective risk prediction tools remain scarce. This study aimed to develop and validate a reliable predictive model for assessing the risk of chronic pain development after calcaneal fracture surgery. Methods This retrospective analysis examined 398 patients who underwent calcaneal fracture surgery between January 2022 and July 2023. Patients were randomly allocated into model development (n = 280) and validation (n = 118) cohorts. Independent risk factors were identified through multivariate logistic regression analysis to construct the prediction model. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis. Results The study identified several independent predictors of postoperative chronic pain: body mass index (BMI) (OR:1.10, 95%CI:1.02–1.19, P = 0.014), operative duration (OR:1.01, 95%CI:1.00–1.02, P = 0.019), surgical approach, and Böhler angle (OR:1.03, 95%CI:1.00–1.06, P = 0.025). The predictive model demonstrated good discriminative ability in both development and validation cohorts, with AUC values of 0.691 (95%CI:0.63–0.75) and 0.655 (95%CI:0.56–0.77), respectively. Calibration plots showed strong agreement between predicted probabilities and observed outcomes. Conclusion Our newly developed predictive model, incorporating BMI, operative duration, surgical approach, and Böhler angle, effectively predicts the risk of chronic pain following calcaneal fracture surgery. This tool provides valuable guidance for clinicians in conducting individualized risk assessments and implementing targeted preventive strategies. |
| Related Links | https://bmcmusculoskeletdisord.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12891-025-08428-y.pdf |
| Ending Page | 11 |
| Page Count | 11 |
| Starting Page | 1 |
| File Format | HTM / HTML |
| ISSN | 14712474 |
| DOI | 10.1186/s12891-025-08428-y |
| Journal | BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders |
| Issue Number | 1 |
| Volume Number | 26 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | BioMed Central |
| Publisher Date | 2025-02-19 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Orthopedics Rehabilitation Rheumatology Sports Medicine Internal Medicine Epidemiology Calcaneal fracture Chronic pain Risk prediction Nomogram Retrospective study |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Orthopedics and Sports Medicine Rheumatology |
| Journal Impact Factor | 2.2/2023 |
| 5-Year Journal Impact Factor | 2.6/2023 |
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