NDLI: Effect of climatic factors on the seasonal fluctuation of human brucellosis in Yulin, northern China

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Liu, Kun Yang, Zurong Liang, Weifeng Guo, Tianci Long, Yong Shao, Zhongjun
Abstract	Background Brucellosis is a serious public health problem primarily affecting livestock workers. The strong seasonality of the disease indicates that climatic factors may play important roles in the transmission of the disease. However, the associations between climatic variability and human brucellosis are still poorly understood. Methods Data for a 14-year series of human brucellosis cases and seven climatic factors were collected in Yulin City from 2005 to 2018, one of the most endemic areas in northern China. Using cross-correlation analysis, the Granger causality test, and a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), we assessed the quantitative relationships and exposure-lag-response effects between monthly climatic factors and human brucellosis. Results A total of 7103 cases of human brucellosis were reported from 2005 to 2018 in Yulin City with a distinct peak between April and July each year. Seasonal fluctuations in the transmission of human brucellosis were significantly affected by temperature, sunshine duration, and evaporation. The effects of climatic factors were non-linear over the 6-month period, and higher values of these factors usually increased disease incidence. The maximum separate relative risk (RR) was 1.36 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03–1.81) at a temperature of 17.4 °C, 1.12 (95% CI, 1.03–1.22) with 311 h of sunshine, and 1.18 (95% CI, 0.94–1.48) with 314 mm of evaporation. In addition, the effects of these three climatic factors were cumulative, with the highest RRs of 2.27 (95% CI, 1.09–4.57), 1.54 (95% CI, 1.10–2.18), and 1.27 (95% CI, 0.73–2.14), respectively. Conclusions In Yulin, northern China, variations in climatic factors, especially temperature, sunshine duration, and evaporation, contributed significantly to seasonal fluctuations of human brucellosis within 6 months. The key determinants of brucellosis transmission and the identified complex associations are useful references for developing strategies to reduce the disease burden.
Related Links	https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12889-020-08599-4.pdf
Ending Page	11
Page Count	11
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-020-08599-4
Journal	BMC Public Health
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	20
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2020-04-16
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Public Health Medicine Epidemiology Biostatistics Vaccine Environmental Health Human brucellosis Climatic factors Granger causality test Distributed lag non-linear models Quantitative associations Medicine/Public Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Journal Impact Factor	3.5/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.9/2023

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