NDLI: The threat of climate change to non-dengue-endemic countries: increasing risk of dengue transmission potential using climate and non-climate datasets

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Lee, Jung-Seok Farlow, Andrew
Abstract	Background Dengue is a major public health problem in the tropics and sub-tropics, but the disease is less known to non-dengue-endemic countries including in Northeast Asia. However, an unexpected dengue outbreak occurred in 2014 in Japan. Given that autochthonous (domestic) dengue cases had not been reported for the past 70 years in Japan, this outbreak was highly unusual and suggests that several environmental factors might have changed in a way that favors vector mosquitoes in the Northeast Asian region. Methods A Climate Risk Factor (CRF) index, as validated in previous work, was constructed using climate and non-climate factors. This CRF index was compared to the number of reported dengue cases in Tokyo, Japan where the outbreak was observed in 2014. In order to identify high-risk areas, the CRF index was further estimated at the 5 km by 5 km resolution and mapped for Japan and South Korea. Results The high-risk areas determined by the CRF index corresponded well to the provinces where a high number of autochthonous cases were reported during the outbreak in Japan. At the provincial-level, high-risk areas for dengue fever were the Eastern part of Tokyo and Kanakawa, the South-Eastern part of Saitama, and the North-Western part of Chiba. While a relatively small number of high-risk areas were identified in South Korea compared with Japan, the high-risk areas in South Korea include popular tourist destinations where international visitors have been increasing. Conclusion The recent dengue outbreak in Japan may signal that the two adjacent non-dengue-endemic countries are also exposed to the risk of temporal and sporadic behavior of dengue fever. It is critical to understand potential high-risk areas for future outbreaks and to set up appropriate prevention activities at the governmental-level.
Related Links	https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12889-019-7282-3.pdf
Ending Page	7
Page Count	7
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-019-7282-3
Journal	BMC Public Health
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	19
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2019-07-11
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Public Health Medicine Epidemiology Biostatistics Vaccine Environmental Health Dengue Dengue outbreak Climate change Dengue in non-dengue-endemic countries Medicine/Public Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Journal Impact Factor	3.5/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.9/2023

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