NDLI: Forecast analysis of any opportunistic infection among HIV positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy in Uganda

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Rubaihayo, John Tumwesigye, Nazarius M. Konde-Lule, Joseph Makumbi, Fredrick
Abstract	Background Predicting future prevalence of any opportunistic infection (OI) among persons infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in resource poor settings is important for proper planning, advocacy and resource allocation. We conducted a study to forecast 5-years prevalence of any OI among HIV-infected individuals on HAART in Uganda. Methods Monthly observational data collected over a 10-years period (2004–2013) by the AIDS support organization (TASO) in Uganda were used to forecast 5-years annual prevalence of any OI covering the period 2014–2018. The OIs considered include 14 AIDS-defining OIs, two non-AIDS defining OIs (malaria & geohelminths) and HIV-associated Kaposi’s sarcoma. Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting methodology was used. Results Between 2004 and 2013, a total of 36,133 HIV patients were enrolled on HAART of which two thirds (66 %) were female. Mean annual prevalence for any OI in 2004 was 57.6 % and in 2013 was 27.5 % (X2trend = 122, b = −0.0283, p <0.0001). ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model was the most parsimonious and best fit for the data. The forecasted mean annual prevalence of any OI was 26.1 % (95 % CI 21.1–31.0 %) in 2014 and 15.3 % (95 % CI 10.4–20.3 %) in 2018. Conclusions While the prevalence of any OI among HIV positive individuals on HAART in Uganda is expected to decrease overall, it’s unlikely that OIs will be completely eliminated in the foreseeable future. There is therefore need for continued efforts in prevention and control of opportunistic infections in all HIV/AIDS care programmes in these settings.
Related Links	https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12889-016-3455-5.pdf
Ending Page	11
Page Count	11
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712458
DOI	10.1186/s12889-016-3455-5
Journal	BMC Public Health
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	16
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2016-08-11
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Public Health Medicine Epidemiology Biostatistics Vaccine Environmental Health HIV/AIDS Opportunistic infections Antiretroviral therapy Prevalence ARIMA Forecast TASO Uganda Medicine/Public Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
Journal Impact Factor	3.5/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.9/2023

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