NDLI: Cancer incidence in urban Shanghai, 1973-2010: an updated trend and age-period-cohort effects

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Bao, Ping-Ping Zheng, Ying Wu, Chun-Xiao Huang, Zhe-Zhou Gao, Yu-Tang Jin, Fan Xiang, Yong-Bing Zhong, Wei-Jian Lu, Wei Wu, Fan
Abstract	Background To provide a comprehensive overview of temporal trends in cancer incidence during 1973–2010 in urban Shanghai. Methods The estimated annual percent changes (EAPCs) for the whole period and for the time segments in age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were evaluated with Joinpoint analysis. Age-period-cohort (APC) models were modeled to examine the effects of age, period and birth cohort on cancer incidence. Results The overall ASR decreased slightly and significantly in males (EAPC of −0.41) but increased significantly in females (EAPC of 0.57) during 1973–2010 in urban Shanghai. The incidence trend was not linear and varied by time segments. During the most recent 10 years (2001–2010), the ASR in males decreased by 1.65 % per year and stabilized in females. Incidence rates continued to decline during 1973–2010 for esophagus, stomach, and liver cancer in both sexes, as well as male lung cancer and cervix cancer. It should be noted that it was the first time to document a significant decline in lung cancer incidence among males during 1973–2010 with EAPC of −0.58 %, and a notable upward for cervix cancer since 1996 with EAPC of 8.94 %. Unfavorable trends in incidence were observed for the most common cancer sites in the 38 years period: colorectum, gallbladder & biliary tract, pancreas, kidney, bladder, brain & central nervous system (CNS), thyroid, non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL), prostate, female breast, corpus uteri, and ovary. APC analysis showed age, period and birth cohort yielded different effects by cancer sites. Conclusions The observed trends primarily reflect dramatic changes in socioeconomic development and lifestyles in urban Shanghai over the past four decades.
Related Links	https://bmccancer.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12885-016-2313-2.pdf
Ending Page	10
Page Count	10
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712407
DOI	10.1186/s12885-016-2313-2
Journal	BMC Cancer
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	16
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2016-04-21
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Cancer Research Oncology Surgical Oncology Health Promotion and Disease Prevention Biomedicine Medicine Public Health Cancer incidence Time trend Age-period-cohort analysis Shanghai Medicine/Public Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Cancer Research Oncology Genetics
Journal Impact Factor	3.4/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	3.8/2023

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