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| Content Provider | Springer Nature : BioMed Central |
|---|---|
| Author | Cheng, Qu Hao, Xingjie Wu, Degang Wang, Qi Spear, Robert C. Wei, Sheng |
| Abstract | Background Although several pathways have been proposed as the prerequisite for a safe phase-out in China, it is not clear which of them are the most important for keeping the mortality rate low, what thresholds should be achieved for these most important interventions, and how the thresholds change with the assumed key epidemiological parameters and population characteristics. Methods We developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate the transmission of the Omicron variant in the synthetic population, accounting for the age-dependent probabilities of severe clinical outcomes, waning vaccine-induced immunity, increased mortality rates when hospitals are overburdened, and reduced transmission when self-isolated at home after testing positive. We applied machine learning algorithms on the simulation outputs to examine the importance of each intervention parameter and the feasible intervention parameter combinations for safe exits, which is defined as having mortality rates lower than that of influenza in China (14.3 per 100, 000 persons). Results We identified vaccine coverage in those above 70 years old, number of ICU beds per capita, and the availability of antiviral treatment as the most important interventions for safe exits across all studied locations, although the thresholds required for safe exits vary remarkably with the assumed vaccine effectiveness, as well as the age structure, age-specific vaccine coverage, community healthcare capacity of the studied locations. Conclusions The analytical framework developed here can provide the basis for further policy decisions that incorporate considerations about economic costs and societal impacts. Achieving safe exits from the Zero-COVID policy is possible, but challenging for China’s cities. When planning for safe exits, local realities such as the age structure and current age-specific vaccine coverage must be taken into consideration. |
| Related Links | https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12879-023-08382-x.pdf |
| Ending Page | 11 |
| Page Count | 11 |
| Starting Page | 1 |
| File Format | HTM / HTML |
| ISSN | 14712334 |
| DOI | 10.1186/s12879-023-08382-x |
| Journal | BMC Infectious Diseases |
| Issue Number | 1 |
| Volume Number | 23 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | BioMed Central |
| Publisher Date | 2023-06-12 |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Subject Keyword | Infectious Diseases Parasitology Medical Microbiology Tropical Medicine Internal Medicine China SARS-CoV-2 Zero-COVID strategy Interventions Safe exit |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Infectious Diseases |
| Journal Impact Factor | 3.4/2023 |
| 5-Year Journal Impact Factor | 3.3/2023 |
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