NDLI: Predictive biomarkers for death and rehospitalization in comorbid frail elderly heart failure patients

Content Provider	Springer Nature : BioMed Central
Author	Pacho, Cristina Domingo, Mar Núñez, Raquel Lupón, Josep Núñez, Julio Barallat, Jaume Moliner, Pedro de Antonio, Marta Santesmases, Javier Cediel, Germán Roura, Santiago Pastor, M. Cruz Tor, Jordi Bayes-Genis, Antoni
Abstract	Background Heart failure (HF) is associated with a high rate of readmissions within 30 days post-discharge and in the following year, especially in frail elderly patients. Biomarker data are scarce in this high-risk population. This study assessed the value of early post-discharge circulating levels of ST2, NT-proBNP, CA125, and hs-TnI for predicting 30-day and 1-year outcomes in comorbid frail elderly patients with HF with mainly preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Methods Blood samples were obtained at the first visit shortly after discharge (4.9 ± 2 days). The primary endpoint was the composite of all-cause mortality or HF-related rehospitalization at 30 days and at 1 year. All-cause mortality alone at one year was also a major endpoint. HF-related rehospitalizations alone were secondary end-points. Results From February 2014 to November 2016, 522 consecutive patients attending the STOP-HF Clinic were included (57.1% women, age 82 ± 8.7 years, mean Barthel index 70 ± 25, mean Charlson comorbidity index 5.6 ± 2.2). The composite endpoint occurred in 8.6% patients at 30 days and in 38.5% at 1 year. In multivariable analysis, ST2 [hazard ratio (HR) 1.53; 95% CI 1.19–1.97; p = 0.001] was the only predictive biomarker at 30 days; at 1 year, both ST2 (HR 1.34; 95% CI 1.15–1.56; p < 0.001) and NT-proBNP (HR 1.19; 95% CI 1.02–1.40; p = 0.03) remained significant. The addition of ST2 and NT-proBNP into a clinical predictive model increased the AUC from 0.70 to 0.75 at 30 days (p = 0.02) and from 0.71 to 0.74 at 1 year (p < 0.05). For all-cause death at 1 year, ST2 (HR 1.50; 95% CI 1.26–1.80; p < 0.001), and CA125 (HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.21–1.63; p < 0.001) remained independent predictors in multivariable analysis. The addition of ST2 and CA125 into a clinical predictive model increased the AUC from 0.74 to 0.78 (p = 0.03). For HF-related hospitalizations, ST2 was the only predictive biomarker in multivariable analyses, both at 30 days and at 1 year. Conclusions In a comorbid frail elderly population with HFpEF, ST2 outperformed NT-proBNP for predicting the risk of all-cause mortality or HF-related rehospitalization. ST2, a surrogate marker of inflammation and fibrosis, may be a better predictive marker in high-risk HFpEF.
Related Links	https://bmcgeriatr.biomedcentral.com/counter/pdf/10.1186/s12877-018-0807-2.pdf
Ending Page	10
Page Count	10
Starting Page	1
File Format	HTM / HTML
ISSN	14712318
DOI	10.1186/s12877-018-0807-2
Journal	BMC Geriatrics
Issue Number	1
Volume Number	18
Language	English
Publisher	BioMed Central
Publisher Date	2018-05-09
Access Restriction	Open
Subject Keyword	Geriatrics Gerontology Aging Rehabilitation Predictive Biomarkers Charlson Comorbidity Index Composite Endpoint Barthel Index Preserved Ejection Fraction Geriatrics/Gerontology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Geriatrics and Gerontology
Journal Impact Factor	3.4/2023
5-Year Journal Impact Factor	4.1/2023

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