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Drought changes and the mechanism analysis for the North American Prairie

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Li, YongFei Sauchyn, Dave Yu, Ge
Copyright Year	2013
Abstract	The worst droughts in the central part of the North American Prairie in the past several hundred years have been reconstructed from tree-ring chronologies, suggesting that some drought years have exceeded the severity shown by the gauge record. A general circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has simulated climate changes for the area during the past 250 years driven by climatic forces, providing scenarios of extreme climate that can further diagnose the mechanisms. This study refined the drought signals from the tree ring data and GFDL modeling at inter-annual and decadal time scales and analyzed the potential mechanisms driving the droughts. Results showed that drought years with summer precipitation lower than the 10$^{th}$ percentiles occurred during 1777–1789, 1847–1861 and 1886–1879 AD in the area. Both tree rings and model revealed that the frequency of droughts has been relatively consistent in a similar timing and frequency with climate change. Monte Carlo analysis have detected that the tree ring chronologies have recorded drought years with probabilities of 9.3%–12.8%, and the model has simulated the droughts with probabilities 5.7%–17.8%. Under CO$_{2}$ and aerosol forcing, the GFDL modeled the drought recurrences of 13 years and 25 years, which are very synchronous changes with tree rings and consistent with gauge records. The 20-a and 10-a time scale reoccurrences of droughts are very consistent with solar radiation cycles, and similar to the length of cycles in oceanic records, suggesting that terrestrial precipitation modeling is properly driven from sun-land-sea dynamics. Detected severity, variability and return periods of droughts from the present study make potential improvements in drought predictions and constructing scenarios for climate impacts and adaptation strategies.
Starting Page	1
Ending Page	14
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	16746767
Journal	Journal of Arid Land
Volume Number	5
Issue Number	1
Language	English
Publisher	SP Science Press
Publisher Date	2012-12-04
Publisher Place	Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	central Prairie drought probability Sustainable Development Physical Geography tree ring chronology climate modeling Plant Ecology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Earth-Surface Processes Water Science and Technology Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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