NDLI: A 200-year climate record in Central Europe: implications for agriculture

Please wait, while we are loading the content...

A 200-year climate record in Central Europe: implications for agriculture

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Trnka, Miroslav Brázdil, Rudolf Dubrovský, Martin Semerádová, Daniela Štěpánek, Petr Dobrovolný, Petr Možný, Martin Eitzinger, Josef Málek, Jan Formayer, Herbert Balek, Jan Žalud, Zdeněk
Copyright Year	2011
Abstract	The close links of climate, soil conditions, and agricultural productivity have been used in Central Europe for taxation purposes since the eighteenth century. Since agroclimatic conditions are variable, their fluctuations in the past centuries can provide a valuable context for analyzing changes expected in the coming decades. Here, historical agroclimatic conditions and future projections were constructed for key agricultural regions in Central Europe. The agroclimatic zoning method used in this study incorporates (1) the sum of temperatures for days with a mean temperature above 10°C during the frost-free period, (2) the water deficit during the summer period from June to August, defined as the difference between precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, and (3) information regarding the suitability of soil and terrain for agriculture production based on twentieth century soil surveys. Changes in selected agroclimatological indices were also analyzed. To produce a weather series representing climate conditions between 1803 and 2008 over the study area, we used a stochastic weather generator trained on high-quality daily observations from 52 representative meteorological stations during the baseline period from 1961 to 1990. To estimate the extent of agroclimatic zones and the values of selected agroclimatic indices, the parameters of the weather generator were perturbed by the deviations of the temperature and precipitation means from the baseline using a long-term climate series from 1803 to 2008, from Brno. To generate a weather series representing the climate in 2050, we used an approach known as “pattern-scaling” in combination with outputs of three general circulation models. To our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing both continuous fluctuations in agroclimatic conditions over the past 200 years and expected shifts in the coming decades over Central Europe.In the study region, our results demonstrate that changes in climate factors since the second half of the twentieth century have favored the expansion of warmer and drier agroclimatic conditions in the most fertile areas, progressively endangering the sustainability of rain-fed agriculture. Conversely, the agroclimatic conditions of regions at higher elevations have improved over the past six decades, as witnessed by increases in maize production areas but also an influx of previously absent pests, e.g., the European corn borer. The length of the vegetation summer has been increasing and shows daily average temperature exceeding 15°C. The mean number of days with snow cover has decreased by up to 30 days since a peak in the late nineteenth century. In lowland areas, the date of the last frost, with a 20-year return period, has moved closer to beginning of the season. Our results show that the predicted rate of change is unprecedented in available agroclimatic records; thus, adaptation cannot rely on past. Consequently, agricultural producers in the region will be forced to significantly bolster their adaptive capacity and develop flexible procedures that reflect the rapidly changing agroclimatic conditions.
Starting Page	631
Ending Page	641
Page Count	11
File Format	PDF
ISSN	17740746
Journal	Agronomy for Sustainable Development
Volume Number	31
Issue Number	4
e-ISSN	17730155
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2011-06-07
Publisher Institution	Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)
Publisher Place	Paris
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Agroclimatic zoning Climate reconstruction Climate variability Drought stress Growing season Sustainable Development Soil Science & Conservation Agriculture
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Environmental Engineering Agronomy and Crop Science

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

A novel method to assess drought stress of olive tree

Effect of traffic stress on cool-season turfgrass under a Mediterranean climate

Plant drought stress: effects, mechanisms and management

Climate change in Europe. 2. Impact on soil. A review

Management of crop water under drought: a review

A 25-year record of carbon sequestration and soil properties in intensive agriculture

Climate change in Europe. 3. Impact on agriculture and forestry. A review

Composite micronutrient nanoparticles and salts decrease drought stress in soybean

Adaptation of grain legumes to climate change: a review

A 200-year climate record in Central Europe: implications for agriculture

Similar Documents

A novel method to assess drought stress of olive tree

Effect of traffic stress on cool-season turfgrass under a Mediterranean climate

Plant drought stress: effects, mechanisms and management

Climate change in Europe. 2. Impact on soil. A review

Management of crop water under drought: a review

A 25-year record of carbon sequestration and soil properties in intensive agriculture

Climate change in Europe. 3. Impact on agriculture and forestry. A review

Composite micronutrient nanoparticles and salts decrease drought stress in soybean

Adaptation of grain legumes to climate change: a review

A 200-year climate record in Central Europe: implications for agriculture