NDLI: Interdecadal variations of ENSO around 1999/2000

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Hu, Zeng Zhen Kumar, Arun Huang, Bohua Zhu, Jieshun Ren, Hong Li
Copyright Year	2017
Abstract	This paper discusses the interdecadal changes of the climate in the tropical Pacific with a focus on the corresponding changes in the characteristics of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Compared with 1979–1999, the whole tropical Pacific climate system, including both the ocean and atmosphere, shifted to a lower variability regime after 1999/2000. Meanwhile, the frequency of ENSO became less regular and was closer to a white noise process. The lead time of the equatorial Pacific's subsurface ocean heat content in preceding ENSO decreased remarkably, in addition to a reduction in the maximum correlation between them. The weakening of the correlation and the shortening of the lead time pose more challenges for ENSO prediction, and is the likely reason behind the decrease in skill with respect to ENSO prediction after 2000. Coincident with the changes in tropical Pacific climate variability, the mean states of the atmospheric and oceanic components also experienced physically coherent changes. The warm anomaly of SST in the western Pacific and cold anomaly in the eastern Pacific resulted in an increased zonal SST gradient, linked to an enhancement in surface wind stress and strengthening of the Walker circulation, as well as an increase in the slope of the thermocline. These changes were consistent with an increase (a decrease) in precipitation and an enhancement (a suppression) of the deep convection in the western (eastern) equatorial Pacific. Possible connections between the mean state and ENSO variability and frequency changes in the tropical Pacific are also discussed.
Starting Page	73
Ending Page	81
Page Count	9
File Format	PDF
ISSN	20956037
Journal	Journal of Meteorological Research
Volume Number	31
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	21980934
Language	English
Publisher	The Chinese Meteorological Society
Publisher Date	2017-03-21
Publisher Place	Beijing
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	ENSO interdecadal variation amplitude suppression frequency change mean state Atmospheric Sciences Meteorology Geophysics and Environmental Physics Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Ocean Engineering Atmospheric Science

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