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  1. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics
  2. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 15
  3. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 15, Issue 2, June 2010
  4. Estimating the Risk of a Crop Epidemic From Coincident Spatio-temporal Processes
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Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 22
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 21
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 20
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 19
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 18
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 17
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 16
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 15
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 15, Issue 4, December 2010
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 15, Issue 3, September 2010
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 15, Issue 2, June 2010
A Calibration Experiment in a Longitudinal Survey With Errors-in-Variables
Estimating the Risk of a Crop Epidemic From Coincident Spatio-temporal Processes
A Spatio-Temporal Downscaler for Output From Numerical Models
A Measurement Error Model for Heterogeneous Capture Probabilities in Mark-Recapture Experiments: An Estimating Equation Approach
Spatial Inference of Nitrate Concentrations in Groundwater
Improving Estimates of Abundance by Aggregating Sparse Capture-Recapture Data
Estimating Population Growth Rate From Capture–Recapture Data in Presence of Capture Heterogeneity
Predicting Life-History Traits for Female New Zealand Sea Lions, Phocarctos hookeri: Integrating Short-Term Mark-Recapture Data and Population Modeling
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 15, Issue 1, March 2010
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 14
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 13
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 12
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 11
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 10
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 9
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 8
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 7
Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics : Volume 6

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Estimating the Risk of a Crop Epidemic From Coincident Spatio-temporal Processes

Content Provider Springer Nature Link
Author Haran, Murali Bhat, K. Sham Molineros, Julio Wolf, Erick
Copyright Year 2009
Abstract Fusarium Head Blight (FHB), or “scab,” is a very destructive disease that affects wheat crops. Recent research has resulted in accurate weather-driven models that estimate the probability of an FHB epidemic based on experiments. However, these predictions ignore two crucial aspects of FHB epidemics: (1) An epidemic is very unlikely to occur unless the plants are flowering, and (2) FHB spreads by its spores, resulting in spatial and temporal dependence in risk. We develop a new approach that combines existing weather-based probabilities with information on flowering dates from survey data, while simultaneously accounting for spatial and temporal dependence. Our model combines two space-time processes, one associated with pure weather-based FHB risks and the other associated with flowering date probabilities. To allow for scalability, we model spatiotemporal dependence via a process convolutions approach. Our sample-based approach produces a realistic assessment of areas that are persistently at high risk (where the probability of an epidemic is elevated for extended time periods), along with associated estimates of uncertainty. We conclude with the application of our approach to a case study from North Dakota.
Starting Page 158
Ending Page 175
Page Count 18
File Format PDF
ISSN 10857117
Journal Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics
Volume Number 15
Issue Number 2
e-ISSN 15372693
Language English
Publisher Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date 2010-01-28
Publisher Place New York
Access Restriction One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword Space-time model Gaussian process Process convolutions Crop epidemics Biostatistics Environmental Monitoring/Analysis Agriculture Statistics for Life Sciences, Medicine, Health Sciences
Content Type Text
Resource Type Article
Subject Applied Mathematics Statistics and Probability Environmental Science Agricultural and Biological Sciences Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
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