NDLI: Comparison of Models Analyzing a Small Number of Observed Meningitis Cases in Navrongo, Ghana

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Hagar, Y. Hayden, M. Wiedinmyer, C. Dukic, V.
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	The “meningitis belt” is a region in sub-Saharan Africa where annual outbreaks of meningitis occur, with epidemics observed cyclically. While we know that meningitis is heavily dependent on seasonal trends, the exact pathways for contracting the disease are not fully understood and warrant further investigation. Most previous approaches have used large sample inference to assess impacts of weather on meningitis rates. However, in the case of rare events, the validity of such assumptions is uncertain. This work examines the meningitis trends in the context of rare events, with the specific objective of quantifying the underlying seasonal patterns in meningitis rates. We compare three main classes of models: the Poisson generalized linear model, the Poisson generalized additive model, and a Bayesian hazard model extended to accommodate count data and a changing at-risk population. We compare the accuracy and robustness of the models through the bias, RMSE, and standard deviation of the estimators, and also provide a detailed case study of meningitis patterns for data collected in Navrongo, Ghana.Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.
Starting Page	76
Ending Page	104
Page Count	29
File Format	PDF
ISSN	10857117
Journal	Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics
Volume Number	22
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	15372693
Language	English
Publisher	Springer US
Publisher Date	2016-12-02
Publisher Place	New York
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Survival analysis Hazard rate Count data Multi-resolution hazard Changing at-risk population Time-varying covariates Statistics for Life Sciences, Medicine, Health Sciences Agriculture Monitoring/Environmental Analysis Biostatistics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Applied Mathematics Statistics and Probability Environmental Science Agricultural and Biological Sciences Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty

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The Role of Weather in Meningitis Outbreaks in Navrongo, Ghana: A Generalized Additive Modeling Approach

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