NDLI: Dynamic Models for Longitudinal Butterfly Data

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Dennis, Emily B. Morgan, Byron J. T. Freeman, Stephen N. Roy, David B. Brereton, Tom
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	We present models which provide succinct descriptions of longitudinal seasonal insect count data. This approach produces, for the first time, estimates of the key parameters of brood productivities. It may be applied to univoltine and bivoltine species. For the latter, the productivities of each brood are estimated separately, which results in new indices indicating the contributions from different generations. The models are based on discrete distributions, with expectations that reflect the underlying nature of seasonal data. Productivities are included in a deterministic, auto-regressive manner, making the data from each brood a function of those in the previous brood. A concentrated likelihood results in appreciable efficiency gains. Both phenomenological and mechanistic models are used, including weather and site-specific covariates. Illustrations are provided using data from the UK Butterfly Monitoring Scheme, however the approach is perfectly general. Consistent associations are found when estimates of productivity are regressed on northing and temperature. For instance, for univoltine species productivity is usually lower following milder winters, and mean emergence times of adults for all species have become earlier over time, due to climate change. The predictions of fitted dynamic models have the potential to improve the understanding of fundamental demographic processes. This is important for insects such as UK butterflies, many species of which are in decline. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
Starting Page	1
Ending Page	21
Page Count	21
File Format	PDF
ISSN	10857117
Journal	Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics
Volume Number	21
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	15372693
Language	English
Publisher	Springer US
Publisher Date	2015-08-25
Publisher Place	New York
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Abundance indices Auto-regression Concentrated likelihood Generalised additive models Phenology Stopover models Statistics for Life Sciences, Medicine, Health Sciences Agriculture Environmental Monitoring/Analysis Biostatistics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Applied Mathematics Statistics and Probability Environmental Science Agricultural and Biological Sciences Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty

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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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