NDLI: Intervention Analysis of Hurricane Effects on Snail Abundance in a Tropical Forest Using Long-Term Spatiotemporal Data

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Prates, Marcos O. Dey, Dipak K. Willig, Michael R. Yan, Jun
Copyright Year	2010
Abstract	Large-scale natural disturbances, such as hurricanes, have profound effects on populations, either directly by causing mortality, or indirectly by altering ecological conditions or the quantity, quality, and spatial distribution of resources. In the last 20 years, two major disturbances, Hurricane Hugo in 1989 and Hurricane Georges in 1998, struck the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico, providing an unique opportunity to understand the long-term effects of recurrent disturbances on the abundance of species. Nenia tridens is one of the most abundant and pervasive terrestrial gastropods in the Luquillo Mountains. Estimates of yearly abundance of N. tridens from 40 sites on the Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot from 1991 to 2007 facilitate the development of a spatiotemporal model with intervention effects on the mean abundance over time in response to each hurricane. Intervention effects characteristically decay over time, similar to those in a time series analysis. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework. Model comparison and diagnostics suggest that our intervention model provides a plausible description of hurricanes effects on the abundances of N. tridens and may be useful for studying long-term spatiotemporal dynamics from the perspective of disturbance and succession.
Starting Page	142
Ending Page	156
Page Count	15
File Format	PDF
ISSN	10857117
Journal	Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics
Volume Number	16
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	15372693
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2010-06-09
Publisher Place	New York
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Bayesian method Disturbance ecology Long-term ecological data MCMC Spatiotemporal model Statistics for Life Sciences, Medicine, Health Sciences Biostatistics Agriculture Environmental Monitoring/Analysis
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Applied Mathematics Statistics and Probability Environmental Science Agricultural and Biological Sciences Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty

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