NDLI: Polar bears in the Beaufort Sea: A 30-year mark-recapture case history

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Amstrup, S. C. McDonald, T. L. Stirling, I.
Copyright Year	2001
Abstract	Knowledge of population size and trend is necessary to manage anthropogenic risks to polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Despite capturing over 1,025 females between 1967 and 1998, previously calculated estimates of the size of the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) population have been unreliable. We improved estimates of numbers of polar bears by modeling heterogeneity in capture probability with covariates. Important covariates referred to the year of the study, age of the bear, capture effort, and geographic location. Our choice of best approximating model was based on the inverse relationship between variance in parameter estimates and likelihood of the fit and suggested a growth from ≈ 500 to over 1,000 females during this study. The mean coefficient of variation on estimates for the last decade of the study was 0.16—the smallest yet derived. A similar model selection approach is recommended for other projects where a best model is not identified by likelihood criteria alone.
Starting Page	221
Ending Page	234
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	10857117
Journal	Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics
Volume Number	6
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	15372693
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2001-01-01
Publisher Place	New York
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Capture-recapture Covariates Logistic modeling Population estimation Statistics for Life Sciences, Medicine, Health Sciences Agriculture Environmental Monitoring/Analysis Biostatistics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Applied Mathematics Statistics and Probability Environmental Science Agricultural and Biological Sciences Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty

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Polar bears in the Beaufort Sea: A 30-year mark-recapture case history

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