NDLI: Assessing the climate change impacts on the rainfall erosivity throughout the twenty-first century in the Grande River Basin (GRB) headwaters, Southeastern Brazil

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Mello, Carlos Rogério Ávila, Léo Fernandes Viola, Marcelo Ribeiro Curi, Nilton Norton, Lloyd Darrell
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Climate change is always occurring. Its impacts on the environment are still uncertain, especially due to the difficulty of simulating the earth’s climate accurately. However, the global circulation climate models have been the only scientific tool to assess such impacts and their results have been well accepted. This study aimed to analyze the possible impacts on rainfall erosive potential throughout the twenty-first century for the A1B climate change scenario, in the Grande River Basin (GRB) headwaters, Southeastern Brazil. The results from Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 model were taken into account to calculate the climatic erosivity indicators “Modified Fournier Index” (MFI) and “Precipitation Concentration Index” (PCI). Based on three meteorological stations, which are monitoring the weather in GRB headwaters since 2005, every 10 min, a statistical relationship between annual rainfall erosivity (EI$_{30}$) and the respective MFI was adjusted to infer about EI$_{30}$ in the future. The results have showed an increase in annual amount of precipitation for most months of the year, except for September and October, throughout the twenty-first century. The greatest impacts on EI$_{30}$ are associated with the projected increase in precipitation for December and January, which can reach up to 49 %. A significant increase in MFI and PCI was observed over the twenty-first century in relation to the present climate. These results demonstrate a potential increase in rainfall erosive power, which causes special concerns due to predominance of shallow soils, associated with undulated to strongly undulated relief in the studied region.
Starting Page	8683
Ending Page	8698
Page Count	16
File Format	PDF
ISSN	18666280
Journal	Environmental Earth Sciences
Volume Number	73
Issue Number	12
e-ISSN	18666299
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2015-01-11
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Rainfall erosion indicators Global warming Rainfall pattern A1B climate change scenario Tropical and subtropical headwaters Geology Hydrology/Water Resources Geochemistry Environmental Science and Engineering Terrestrial Pollution Biogeosciences
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Global and Planetary Change Earth-Surface Processes Soil Science Environmental Chemistry Pollution Geology Water Science and Technology

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