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Future threats to agricultural food production posed by environmental degradation, climate change, and animal and plant diseases – a risk analysis in three economic and climate settings

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Food Security : Volume 6, Issue 1, February 2014

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Food Security : Volume 1

Future threats to agricultural food production posed by environmental degradation, climate change, and animal and plant diseases – a risk analysis in three economic and climate settings

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Sundström, Jens F. Albihn, Ann Boqvist, Sofia Ljungvall, Karl Marstorp, Håkan Martiin, Carin Nyberg, Karin Vågsholm, Ivar Yuen, Jonathan Magnusson, Ulf
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	Global food security is one of the most pressing issues for humanity, and agricultural production is critical for achieving this. The existing analyses of specific threats to agricultural food production seldom bring out the contrasts associated with different levels of economic development and different climatic zones. We therefore investigated the same biophysical threats in three modelled types of countries with different economic and climatic conditions. The threats analysed were environmental degradation, climate change and diseases and pests of animals and plants. These threats were analysed with a methodology enabling the associated risks to be compared. The timeframe was 2012–2050 and the analysis was based on three underlying assumptions for 2050: the world population will have increased to 9 billion people, there will be a larger middle class in the world and climate change will be causing more extreme weather events, higher temperatures and altered precipitation. It is suggested that the risks, presented by the biophysical threats analysed, differ among the three modelled types of countries and that climate zone, public stewardship and economic strength are major determinants of these differences. These determinants are far from evenly spread among the world’s major food producers, which implies that diversification of risk monitoring and international assessment of agricultural production is critical for assuring global food security in 2050.
Starting Page	201
Ending Page	215
Page Count	15
File Format	PDF
ISSN	18764517
Journal	Food Security
Volume Number	6
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	18764525
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2014-02-17
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Agriculture Food security Risks Environmental degradation Climate change Pests and diseases Food Science Social Policy Plant Sciences Environment Social Sciences
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Development Food Science Agronomy and Crop Science

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