NDLI: Drivers' adaptive expectations formation in nonstationary traffic environment

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Do, Myungsik
Copyright Year	2001
Abstract	In this paper, we examine the modeling process of traffic conditions that drivers learn such as travel time through longterm learning behavior under a nonstationary traffic environment. We found that rational expectations formation about the route travel time can be expressed by the adaptive expectations model when the travel time changes in accordance with a nonstationary process which consists of permanent shock and transient shock. We found that the adaptive parameter of the model converges to a fixed value corresponding to the route conditions. Furthermore, when the traffic environment follows stationary processes, the expectations of the traffic agent are congruent with the rational expectations. In other words, rational expectations formation can be regarded as a special case of the expectation formation model that is proposed in this research. The paper is concluded by illustrating some numerical examples.
Starting Page	75
Ending Page	85
Page Count	11
File Format	PDF
ISSN	12267988
Journal	KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering
Volume Number	5
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	19763808
Language	English
Publisher	Korean Society of Civil Engineers
Publisher Date	2001-01-01
Publisher Place	Seoul
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	nonstationary traffic environment drivers' traffic behavior adaptive expectations hypothesis state space model coefficient of learning Civil Engineering Industrial Pollution Prevention Automotive and Aerospace Engineering, Traffic Geotechnical Engineering
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Civil and Structural Engineering

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