NDLI: Reliability analysis of debris basins in Los Angeles, California

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Kwon, Hyuk Jae Pak, Jang Hyuk
Copyright Year	2012
Abstract	Reliability model which can quantitatively calculate the probability of failure of debris basin was developed using MSDPM (Multi Sequence Debris Prediction Method). In reliability model, load and resistance of reliability function for debris basin were estimated by MSDPM and size of debris basin, respectively. Annual maximum 1-hr rainfall intensity of Los Angeles was statistically analyzed by 7 rain gages near Los Angeles area. It was found that statistical distribution for annual maximum 1-hr rainfall intensity of Los Angeles is matched well with Gumbel distribution. After the analysis of rainfall intensity as a random variable, reliability model was applied to the calculations of the probability of failure of Brand and Childs debris basins located in Los Angeles. Reliability analysis was performed to calculate the probability that debris basin is filled up with debris according to maximum 1-hr rainfall intensity of 50-year return period. Probability of failure of two debris basins according to number of maximum rainfall events was calculated using 50-year return period with and without wildfire. Even if maximum rainfall events were happened consecutively several times, probability of failure of Childs debris basin was less than 1% without wildfire. It was found that wildfire must be very important variable which can generate the huge debris yields. Therefore, wildfire should be carefully considered for the design criteria and maintenance of debris basin.
Starting Page	1295
Ending Page	1301
Page Count	7
File Format	PDF
ISSN	12267988
Journal	KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering
Volume Number	16
Issue Number	7
e-ISSN	19763808
Language	English
Publisher	Korean Society of Civil Engineers
Publisher Date	2012-10-30
Publisher Place	Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	debris yield wildfire rainfall intensity reliability model Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Civil Engineering Industrial Pollution Prevention
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Civil and Structural Engineering

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