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Evaluating and Improving Probability Assessment in an Ambiguous, Sequential Environment

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Goodie, Adam S. Meisel, Matthew K. Ceren, Roi Hall, Daniel B. Doshi, Prashant
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	The current study explores the validity of verbal probability assessments in a sequential and highly ambiguous task, that is, one in which it is virtually impossible to know or learn about the true probabilities of possible outcomes. Participants observed the pre-defined motion of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), such that the participant’s success depended on the UAV reaching a target sector without being spotted by an opponent UAV. At several points in each trajectory, participants’ task was to evaluate the likelihood of reaching the target successfully. The study utilized a 2 × 2 independent-groups factorial design to examine the effect of probability incentivization (Brier vs none), in which participants receive payment based on the nearness of their predictions to actual outcomes, and informational reviews (present vs absent), in which participants engage in detailed discussion with the experimenter, regarding their assessments in seven previous trials before continuing, on probability assessment. A statistically significant main effect of Brier scoring was found, such that Brier based incentivization improved assessment accuracy. The effect of informational review and the interaction effect were not significant. All groups performed significantly better than random and uninformed performance. Outcomes from this study improve our understanding of the validity of online judgments made by operators of unmanned vehicles in strategic settings. It is concluded that non-expert probability assessments carry important information value even in ambiguous settings and even without incentives, and importantly, are further amenable to incentives and training.
Starting Page	667
Ending Page	673
Page Count	7
File Format	PDF
ISSN	10461310
Journal	Current Psychology
Volume Number	35
Issue Number	4
e-ISSN	19364733
Language	English
Publisher	Springer US
Publisher Date	2015-05-24
Publisher Place	New York
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Probability judgment Ambiguity Brier score Cognition Psychology Social Sciences
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Psychology

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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