NDLI: Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

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Theoretical Ecology : Volume 10

Theoretical Ecology : Volume 9

Theoretical Ecology : Volume 8

Theoretical Ecology : Volume 7

Theoretical Ecology : Volume 6

Theoretical Ecology : Volume 6, Issue 4, November 2013

Theoretical Ecology : Volume 6, Issue 3, August 2013

Editorial: special issue on regime shifts and tipping points in ecology

Early warning signals: the charted and uncharted territories

Precursors of state transitions in stochastic systems with delay

Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Asymmetric response of early warning indicators of phytoplankton transition to and from cycles

Warning signs for wave speed transitions of noisy Fisher–KPP invasion fronts

Flickering as an early warning signal

Statistical indicators and state–space population models predict extinction in a population of bobwhite quail

Theory of early warning signals of disease emergenceand leading indicators of elimination

Regime shifts in a social-ecological system

Early warning signals of simulated Amazon rainforest dieback

Evidence of alternate attractors from a whole-ecosystem regime shift experiment

Theoretical Ecology : Volume 6, Issue 2, May 2013

Theoretical Ecology : Volume 6, Issue 1, February 2013

Theoretical Ecology : Volume 5

Theoretical Ecology : Volume 4

Theoretical Ecology : Volume 3

Theoretical Ecology : Volume 2

Theoretical Ecology : Volume 1

Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Guttal, Vishwesha Jayaprakash, C. Tabbaa, Omar P.
Copyright Year	2013
Abstract	Various ecological and other complex dynamical systems may exhibit abrupt regime shifts or critical transitions, wherein they reorganize from one stable state to another over relatively short time scales. Because of potential losses to ecosystem services, forecasting such unexpected shifts would be valuable. Using mathematical models of regime shifts, ecologists have proposed various early warning signals of imminent shifts. However, their generality and applicability to real ecosystems remain unclear because these mathematical models are considered too simplistic. Here, we investigate the robustness of recently proposed early warning signals of regime shifts in two well-studied ecological models, but with the inclusion of time-delayed processes. We find that the average variance may either increase or decrease prior to a regime shift and, thus, may not be a robust leading indicator in time-delayed ecological systems. In contrast, changing average skewness, increasing autocorrelation at short time lags, and reddening power spectra of time series of the ecological state variable all show trends consistent with those of models with no time delays. Our results provide insights into the robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in a broader class of ecological systems.
Starting Page	271
Ending Page	283
Page Count	13
File Format	PDF
ISSN	18741738
Journal	Theoretical Ecology
Volume Number	6
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	18741746
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2013-06-22
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Regime shifts Critical transitions Alternative stable states Resilience Delay differential equations Early warning signals Variance Skewness Autocorrelation Power spectra Theoretical Ecology/Statistics Plant Sciences Zoology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Ecology Ecological Modeling

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Spatial variance and spatial skewness: leading indicators of regime shifts in spatial ecological systems

Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts

Spatial correlation as leading indicator of catastrophic shifts

Generic Indicators of Ecological Resilience: Inferring the Chance of a Critical Transition

Flickering as an early warning signal

Long-term empirical evidence, early warning signals, and multiple drivers of regime shifts in a lake ecosystem (Dataset)

Early warning signals: the charted and uncharted territories

Early warning signals: the charted and uncharted territories

Regime shifts in a social-ecological system

Robustness of early warning signals of regime shifts in time-delayed ecological models

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