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| Content Provider | Springer Nature Link |
|---|---|
| Author | Srivastava, Nandita |
| Copyright Year | 2006 |
| Abstract | Geomagnetic super-storms of October and November 2003 are compared in order to identify solar and interplanetary variables that influence the magnitude of geomagnetic storms. Although these superstorms (D$_{ST}$ < -300 nT) are associated with high speed CMEs, their DST indices show large variation. The most intense storm of November 20, 2003 (D$_{St}$∼ - 472 nT) had its source in a comparatively small active region and was associated with a relatively weaker, M-class flare, while the others had their origins in large active regions and were associated with strong X-class flares. An attempt has been made to implement a logistic regression model for the prediction of the occurrence of intense/superintense geomagnetic storms. The model parameters (regression coefficients) were estimated from a training data-set extracted from a data-set of 64 geo-effective CMEs observed during 1996–2002. The results indicate that logistic regression models can be effectively used for predicting the occurrence of major geomagnetic storms from a set of solar and interplanetary factors. The model validation shows that 100% of the intense storms (-200 nT < D$_{St}$ < -100 nT) and only 50% of the super-intense (DST < -200 nT) storms could be correctly predicted. |
| Starting Page | 237 |
| Ending Page | 242 |
| Page Count | 6 |
| File Format | |
| ISSN | 02506335 |
| Journal | Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy |
| Volume Number | 27 |
| Issue Number | 2-3 |
| e-ISSN | 09737758 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Springer India |
| Publisher Date | 2006-01-01 |
| Publisher Institution | Indian Academy of Sciences |
| Publisher Place | New Delhi |
| Access Restriction | One Nation One Subscription (ONOS) |
| Subject Keyword | Sun: coronal mass ejection geomagnetic storms space weather Astronomy Astrophysics |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Astronomy and Astrophysics Space and Planetary Science |
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