NDLI: China’s Rare Earth Supply Chain: Illegal Production, and Response to new Cerium Demand

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Nguyen, Ruby Thuy Imholte, D. Devin
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	As the demand for personal electronic devices, wind turbines, and electric vehicles increases, the world becomes more dependent on rare earth elements. Given the volatile, Chinese-concentrated supply chain, global attempts have been made to diversify supply of these materials. However, the overall effect of supply diversification on the entire supply chain, including increasing low-value rare earth demand, is not fully understood. This paper is the first attempt to shed some light on China’s supply chain from both demand and supply perspectives, taking into account different Chinese policies such as mining quotas, separation quotas, export quotas, and resource taxes. We constructed a simulation model using Powersim Studio that analyzes production (both legal and illegal), production costs, Chinese and rest-of-world demand, and market dynamics. We also simulated new demand of an automotive aluminum-cerium alloy in the US market starting from 2018. Results showed that market share of the illegal sector has grown since 2007–2015, ranging between 22% and 25% of China’s rare earth supply, translating into 59–65% illegal heavy rare earths and 14–16% illegal light rare earths. There will be a shortage in certain light and heavy rare earths given three production quota scenarios and constant demand growth rate from 2015 to 2030. The new simulated Ce demand would require supply beyond that produced in China. Finally, we illustrate revenue streams for different ore compositions in China in 2015.
Starting Page	1948
Ending Page	1956
Page Count	9
File Format	PDF
ISSN	10474838
Journal	JOM
Volume Number	68
Issue Number	7
e-ISSN	15431851
Language	English
Publisher	Springer US
Publisher Date	2016-03-29
Publisher Institution	The Minerals, Metals & Materials Society (TMS)
Publisher Place	New York
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Engineering Chemistry/Food Science Physics Environment Earth Sciences
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Engineering Materials Science

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