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Romer revisited: long-term changes in the cyclical sensitivity of unemployment

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	James, John A. Thomas, Mark
Copyright Year	2007
Abstract	In this paper we employ microeconomic evidence on the unemployment experiences of American males to evaluate the sensitivity of unemployment to business cycle fluctuations in the late nineteenth century as compared to the mid-twentieth century. Our results indicate a substantial decline in the value of the Okun coefficient (from −0.65 to −0.32) between the 1890s and the 1960s. These findings challenge Christina Romer’s interpretation that the measured decline in cyclical volatility of unemployment over the twentieth century was created by improvements in the statistical record. Rather, it was changes in the underlying dynamics of the labor market over the cycle, most notably the transition to procyclical productivity patterns and the shift from an added to a discouraged worker effect among secondary workers, which may be summarized as the development of modern labor market behavior, that account for the declining cyclical sensitivity of employment and the drop in the cyclical volatility of unemployment over the century.
Starting Page	19
Ending Page	44
Page Count	26
File Format	PDF
ISSN	18632505
Journal	Cliometrica
Volume Number	1
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	18632513
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2007-01-12
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Cyclical sensitivity of unemployment Unemployment volatility Okun’s law Methodology and the History of Economic Thought Econometrics History Economic Theory
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	History Economics and Econometrics

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