NDLI: Does the IMF cause civil war? A comment

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Liam Clegg. 2013. Controlling the World Bank and IMF: Shareholders, stakeholders, and the politics of concessional lending (New York: Palgrave Macmillan)

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Does the IMF cause civil war? A comment

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Midtgaard, Trude M. Vadlamannati, Krishna Chaitanya Soysa, Indra
Copyright Year	2013
Abstract	The global economic downturn has heightened concerns about intervention by global financial institutions and political stability. One prominently-published article purports to show that signing on to an IMF structural adjustment program (SAP) increases the risk of civil war, Hartzell et al. (International Organization 64:339–56, 2010). The authors claim that IMF SAPs push liberalization, which hurts people badly enough that they foment civil war. We advance the debate by critically examining their theoretical and empirical evidence, particularly questioning their crucial assumptions about the impact of IMF programs on the economic environment in terms of who actually wins and loses from liberalization and who might be in a position to rebel. Using their data, we find that signing on to an IMF program predicts the onset of a civil war negatively if one uses a lower threshold of 25 deaths when defining civil war. These results suggest that the operationalization of the IMF variable as well as the use of large-scale civil war (1,000 deaths and above) simply capture the effect of ongoing conflict rather than the effects of liberalization. After extending the time period under study and making only minor changes to operationalization, we find that at no time does IMF involvement successfully predict the onset of a civil war.
Starting Page	107
Ending Page	124
Page Count	18
File Format	PDF
ISSN	15597431
Journal	The Review of International Organizations
Volume Number	9
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	1559744X
Language	English
Publisher	Springer US
Publisher Date	2013-03-20
Publisher Place	Boston
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	IMF Crisis Civil war Replication Social Sciences Political Science Economics general
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Political Science and International Relations Economics and Econometrics Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management

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