NDLI: Estimation of the probability of strongest seismic disasters based on the extreme value theory

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Pisarenko, V. F. Rodkin, M. V. Rukavishnikova, T. A.
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	This paper presents the review of the experience in applying the approach based on the limiting distributions of the extreme value theory (the generalized Pareto distribution, GPS, and generalized extreme value distribution, GEV) for deriving the distributions of maximal magnitudes and related ground accelerations from the earthquakes on the future time intervals of a given duration. The results of analyzing the global and regional earthquake catalogs and the ground peak accelerations during the earthquakes are described. It is shown that the magnitude of the strongest possible earthquake M $_{max}$ (and analogous characteristics for other types of data), which is often used in seismic risk assessment, is potentially unstable. We suggest a stable alternative for M $_{max}$ in the form of quantiles Q $_{ q }$(τ) of the maximal possible earthquake, which could occur during the future time interval of length τ. The quantity of the characteristic maximal event M $_{c}$, which has been introduced in our previous publications, is another helpful robust scalar parameter. All the cases of approximation of the tails of empirical distributions, which were studied in our works, turned out to be finite (bounded); however, the rightmost point of these distributions, M $_{max}$, is often poorly detectable and unstable. Therefore, the M $_{max}$ parameter has a low practical value.
Starting Page	311
Ending Page	324
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	10693513
Journal	Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth
Volume Number	50
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	15556506
Language	English
Publisher	Pleiades Publishing
Publisher Date	2014-05-07
Publisher Place	Moscow
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Geophysics/Geodesy
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Earth and Planetary Sciences Environmental Science

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