NDLI: Epidemiological and risk analysis of the H7N9 subtype influenza outbreak in China at its early stage

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Zhuang, QingYe Wang, SuChun Wu, MeiLi Liu, Shuo Jiang, WenMing Hou, GuangYu Li, JinPing Wang, KaiCheng Yu, JianMin Chen, JiMing Chen, JiWang
Copyright Year	2013
Abstract	Dozens of human cases infected with H7N9 subtype avian influenza virus (AIV) have been confirmed in China since March, 2013. Distribution data of sexes, ages, professions and regions of the cases were analyzed in this report. The results showed that the elderly cases, especially the male elderly, were significantly more than expected, which is different from human cases of H5N1 avian influenza and human cases of the pandemic H1N1 influenza. The outbreak was rated as a Grade III (severe) outbreak, and it would evolve into a Grade IV (very severe) outbreak soon, using a method reported previously. The H7N9 AIV will probably circulate in humans, birds and pigs for years. Moreover, with the driving force of natural selection, the virus will probably evolve into highly pathogenic AIV in birds, and into a deadly pandemic influenza virus in humans. Therefore, the H7N9 outbreak has been assumed severe, and it is likely to become very or extremely severe in the future, highlighting the emergent need of forceful scientific measures to eliminate any infected animal flocks. We also described two possible mild scenarios of the future evolution of the outbreak.
Starting Page	3183
Ending Page	3187
Page Count	5
File Format	PDF
ISSN	10016538
Journal	Chinese Science Bulletin
Volume Number	58
Issue Number	26
e-ISSN	18619541
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2013-04-27
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Subject Keyword	H7N9 avian influenza virus outbreak epidemiology risk Science Life Sciences Physics Chemistry/Food Science Earth Sciences Engineering
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Multidisciplinary

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