NDLI: Misdiagnosis of Earth climate sensitivity based on energy balance model results

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Richardson, Mark Hausfather, Zeke Nuccitelli, Dana A. Rice, Ken Abraham, John P.
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Monckton of Brenchley et al. (Sci Bull 60:122–135, 2015) (hereafter called M15) use a simple energy balance model to estimate climate response. They select parameters for this model based on semantic arguments, leading to different results from those obtained in physics-based studies. M15 did not validate their model against observations, but instead created synthetic test data based on subjective assumptions. We show that M15 systematically underestimate warming: since 1990, most years were warmer than their modelled upper limit. During 2000–2010, RMS error and bias are approximately 150 % and 350 % larger than for the CMIP5 median, using either the Berkeley Earth or Cowtan and Way surface temperature data. We show that this poor performance can be explained by a logical flaw in the parameter selection and that selected parameters contradict observational estimates. M15 also conclude that climate has a near-instantaneous response to forcing, implying no net energy imbalance for the Earth. This contributes to their low estimates of future warming and is falsified by Argo float measurements that show continued ocean heating and therefore a sustained energy imbalance. M15’s estimates of climate response and future global warming are not consistent with measurements and so cannot be considered credible.
Starting Page	1370
Ending Page	1377
Page Count	8
File Format	PDF
ISSN	20959273
Journal	Chinese Science Bulletin
Volume Number	60
Issue Number	15
e-ISSN	20959281
Language	English
Publisher	Science China Press
Publisher Date	2015-05-31
Publisher Place	Beijing
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Climate sensitivity Global warming Climate change Climate model Climate feedback Science Life Sciences Physics Chemistry/Food Science Earth Sciences Engineering
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Multidisciplinary

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model

Keeping it simple: the value of an irreducibly simple climate model

Global warming projections using the human–earth system model BNU-HESM1.0

Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model

Changes in precipitation and extreme precipitation in a warming environment in China

The impact of ocean warming on marine organisms

Revisiting the Global Energy Budget Dynamics with a Multivariate Earth Energy Balance Model to Account for the Warming Pattern Effect

Engineering thermotolerant plants: a solution to protecting crop production threatened by global warming

Uncertainty in crossing time of 2 °C warming threshold over China

Misdiagnosis of Earth climate sensitivity based on energy balance model results

Similar Documents

Why models run hot: results from an irreducibly simple climate model

Keeping it simple: the value of an irreducibly simple climate model

Global warming projections using the human–earth system model BNU-HESM1.0

Conceptual understanding of climate change with a globally resolved energy balance model

Changes in precipitation and extreme precipitation in a warming environment in China

The impact of ocean warming on marine organisms

Revisiting the Global Energy Budget Dynamics with a Multivariate Earth Energy Balance Model to Account for the Warming Pattern Effect

Engineering thermotolerant plants: a solution to protecting crop production threatened by global warming

Uncertainty in crossing time of 2 °C warming threshold over China

Misdiagnosis of Earth climate sensitivity based on energy balance model results