NDLI: Predicting Recovery from Acidic Deposition: Applying a Modified TAF (Tracking and Analysis Framework) Model to Maine (USA) High Elevation Lakes

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Lawler, Joshua J. Rubin, Jonathan Cosby, Bernard J. Fernandez, Ivan J. Kahl, Jeffrey S. rton, Stephen A.
Copyright Year	2005
Abstract	We adapted a reduced-form model, built to predict the aquatic effects of alternative nitrogen and sulfur emissions scenarios on Adirondack lakes, New York, for use on high elevation lakes of Maine (HELM), USA. The Tracking and Analysis Framework (TAF) model was originally designed to evaluate the biotic, economic, and health effects of acid deposition. The TAF model developed in our study was used to assess the biotic effects of different levels of sulfate deposition resulting from alternative emissions scenarios. The aquatic portion of the model is based on a lumped-parameter watershed chemistry model, MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments). The original TAF model was built by calibrating MAGIC to 33 lakes in the Adirondack Mountains. We calibrated MAGIC to 78 HELM lakes, and built reduced-form models from these MAGIC predictions. We evaluated TAF predictions of acid neutralizing capacity (ANC), a fish acid stress index (ASI), and the probability of fish presence in 2030 for four different SO$_{2}$ emissions-reduction scenarios. The most dramatic emissions reduction scenario produced only modest increases in mean ANC (16.8 μeq/L ± 7.9 μeq/L) and slight increases in mean predicted probability of presence of acid-sensitive fish (0.07± 0.09) across all lakes. However, a small number of lakes were predicted to have more substantial increases in ANC and improvements in other conditions for acid-sensitive fish. Our results reflect the reality that many of the high elevation lakes of Maine historically had low ANC and that some were even acidic in pre-industrial times. Thus, ’recovery’ for most of the high elevation lakes of Maine will be modest under any scenario of reduced acidic deposition.
Starting Page	383
Ending Page	399
Page Count	17
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00496979
Journal	Water, Air, and Soil Pollution
Volume Number	164
Issue Number	1-4
e-ISSN	15732932
Language	English
Publisher	Kluwer Academic Publishers
Publisher Date	2005-01-01
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	acid deposition fish lake acidification lake recovery Maine reduced-form modeling watershed modeling Hydrogeology Environment Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Ecological Modeling Environmental Chemistry Pollution Environmental Engineering Water Science and Technology

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