NDLI: A Synoptic Climatological Approach to Assess Climatic Impact on Air Quality in South-central Canada. Part II: Future Estimates

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Cheng, Chad Shouquan Campbell, Monica Li, Qian Li, Guilong Auld, Heather Day, Nancy Pengelly, David Gingrich, Sarah Yap, David
Copyright Year	2006
Abstract	Using within-weather-group air pollution prediction models developed in Part I of this research, this study estimates future air pollution levels for a variety of pollutants (specifically, carbon monoxide – CO, nitrogen dioxide – NO$_{2}$, ozone – O$_{3}$, sulphur dioxide – SO$_{2}$, and suspended particles – SP) under future climate scenarios for four cities in south-central Canada. A statistical downscaling method was used to downscale five general circulation model (GCM) scenarios to selected weather stations. Downscaled GCM scenarios were used to compare respective characteristics of the weather groups developed in Part I; discriminant function analysis was used to allocate future days from two windows of time (2040–2059 and 2070–2089) into one of four weather groups. In Part I, the four weather groups were characterised as hot, cold, air pollution-related, and other (defined as relatively good air quality and comfortable weather conditions). In estimating future daily air pollution concentrations, three future pollutant emission scenarios were considered: Scenario I – emissions decreasing 20% by 2050, Scenario II – future emissions remaining at the same level as at the end of the twentieth century, and Scenario III – emissions increasing 20% by 2050. The results showed that, due to increased temperatures, the average annual number of days with high O$_{3}$ levels in the four selected cities could increase by more than 40–100% by the 2050s and 70–200% by the 2080s (from the current areal average of 8 days) under the three pollutant emission scenarios. The corresponding number of low O$_{3}$ days could decrease by 4–10% and 5–15% (from the current areal average of 312 days). For the rest of the pollutants, future air pollution levels will depend on future pollutant emission levels. Under emission Scenarios II and III, the average annual number of high pollution days could increase 20–40% and 80–180%, respectively, by the middle and late part of this century. In contrast, under Scenario I, the average annual number of high pollution days could decrease by 10–65%.
Starting Page	117
Ending Page	130
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00496979
Journal	Water, Air, and Soil Pollution
Volume Number	182
Issue Number	1-4
e-ISSN	15732932
Language	English
Publisher	Kluwer Academic Publishers
Publisher Date	2006-12-23
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	climate change scenarios downscaling synoptic weather typing future air pollution South-central Canada Hydrogeology Terrestrial Pollution Waste Water Technology Water Pollution Control Water Management Aquatic Pollution Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Environment
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Ecological Modeling Environmental Chemistry Pollution Environmental Engineering Water Science and Technology

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

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