NDLI: Magic, Safe and Smart Model Applications at Integrated Monitoring Sites: Effects of Emission Reduction Scenarios

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Forsius, M. Alveteg, M. Jenkins, A. Johansson, M. Kleemola, S. Lükewille, A. Posch, M. Sverdrup, H. Walse, C.
Copyright Year	1998
Abstract	Three well-known dynamic acidification models (MAGIC, SAFE, SMART) were applied to data sets from five Integrated Monitoring sites in Europe. The calibrated models were used in a policy-oriented framework to predict the long-term soil acidification of these background forest sites, given different scenarios of future deposition of S and N. Emphasis was put on deriving realistic site-specific scenarios for the model applications. The deposition was calculated with EMEP transfer matrices and official emissions for the target years 2000, 2005 and 2010. The alternatives for S deposition were current reduction plans and maximum feasible reductions. For N, the NOx and NHy depositions were frozen at the present level. For NOx, a reduction scenario of flat 30% reduction from present deposition also was utilized to demonstrate the possible effects of such a measure. The three models yielded generally consistent results. The ‘Best prediction’-scenario (including the effects of the second UN/ECE protocol for reductions of SO2 emissions and present level for NOx-emissions), resulted in many cases in a stabilization of soil acidification, although significant improvements were not always shown. With the exception of one site, the ‘Maximum Feasible Reductions’ scenario always resulted in significant improvements. Dynamic models are needed as a complement to steady-state techniques for estimating critical loads and assessing emission reduction policies, where adequate data are available.
Starting Page	21
Ending Page	30
Page Count	10
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00496979
Journal	Water, Air, and Soil Pollution
Volume Number	105
Issue Number	1-2
e-ISSN	15732932
Language	English
Publisher	Kluwer Academic Publishers
Publisher Date	1998-01-01
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Hydrogeology Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Ecological Modeling Environmental Chemistry Pollution Environmental Engineering Water Science and Technology

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