NDLI: Markov Chains of Different Orders for Streamflow Drought Analysis

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Tabari, Hossein Zamani, Reza Rahmati, Hossein Willems, Patrick
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Drought is a slow and creeping phenomenon that occurs more frequently in arid and semi-arid regions. In recent decades, among natural disasters influencing human societies the number or frequency of drought event has increased more than others. In this context, the prediction of drought intensity, duration and frequency can help to take the necessary precautions and reduce drought risk. This study employs Markov chains of different orders (0, 1, 2 and 3) to analyze hydrological drought characteristics. Hydrological drought is identified based on the streamflow drought index (SDI) at 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month time scales using data from 21 hydrometric stations located in the Karkheh River Basin in Iran. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), first-order Markov chain models are adequate to reproduce the statistical structure of SDI-based hydrological droughts. Moreover, the steady state probabilities and expected residence time of drought severity for all time scales increase as the degree of severity decreases. The results also indicate that the expected frequency of drought occurrence is higher for smaller time scales (i.e., 3-month and 6-month).
Starting Page	3441
Ending Page	3457
Page Count	17
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09204741
Journal	Water Resources Management
Volume Number	29
Issue Number	9
e-ISSN	15731650
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2015-04-25
Publisher Institution	European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Streamflow drought index Markov chain Steady state probabilities Expected residence time Drought frequency Hydrogeology Hydrology/Water Resources Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Atmospheric Sciences Civil Engineering Environment
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Water Science and Technology Civil and Structural Engineering

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