NDLI: Water Distribution Network Risk Analysis Under Simultaneous Consumption and Roughness Uncertainties

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Seifollahi Aghmiuni, S. Bozorg Haddad, O. Mariño, M. A.
Copyright Year	2013
Abstract	The design of water distribution networks (WDNs) is an optimization problem with minimization of pipes and their associated installation costs as the objective function. In this problem, securing the allowable minimum pressure or the allowable maximum velocity in the demand pattern is important. A reliable long-term system requires a high reliability when first designed. Thus, assessment of the network condition during the operational period, when it is first designed, can be an effective way to increase the network efficiency. In addition, consideration of uncertainty of network parameters is important. This paper develops a probabilistic model based on the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method to assess effects of those uncertainties simultaneously in the long-term performance of the network by considering various scenarios for variations of nodal demands and pipe roughness using different values of the coefficient of variation (CV) as the uncertainty measure. Consumption nodal demands and pipe roughness in a benchmark two-loop network are considered as uncertain variables. Calculation of a deterministic performance (failure) index (I $_{ f }$) for various generated probabilistic scenarios in the MCS method during a 30-year operational period simulation in this network show that an increase of uncertainty in each variable separately causes a decrease in the deterministically-designed network efficiency. Sensitivity of changing the average value of I $_{ f }$ calculations show a nodal demand deficit of 45 % and a nodal pressure deficit of 61 % during the operational period. This condition shows the necessity of considering uncertain changes of variables simultaneously during the operational period in the design of WDNs.
Starting Page	2595
Ending Page	2610
Page Count	16
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09204741
Journal	Water Resources Management
Volume Number	27
Issue Number	7
e-ISSN	15731650
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2013-02-16
Publisher Institution	European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Uncertainty Nodal demands Pipe roughness Efficiency Water distribution network Monte Carlo simulation. Hydrogeology Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Atmospheric Sciences Civil Engineering Environment
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Water Science and Technology Civil and Structural Engineering

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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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