NDLI: Selecting the Best Flood Flow Frequency Model Using Multi-Criteria Group Decision-Making

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Mohammadpour, Osman Hassanzadeh, Yousef Khodadadi, Ahmad Saghafian, Bahram
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	Several criteria should be considered when selecting a probability distribution to describe hydrological data. This study examines how multiple criteria can be combined to make the best selection. Selection becomes more difficult and subjective when more than two criteria are used to determine the best distribution. Under these conditions, multi-criteria decision-making is necessary. In this study, 12 distributions were tested and compared for flood frequency analysis based on five selection criteria: root mean square error, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistic, relative average bias, modified Anderson-Darling test, and deviation in skewness and kurtosis. The comparisons are made using a multi-criteria group decision-making (MCGDM) based on ordered weighted averaging (OWA). Two preemptive goal programming models based on variance and entropy methods for a predetermined level of optimism by a group of decision-makers, determined the weight of the OWA operator. The model was applied to a case study of Mahabad River, a major river flowing into Lake Urmia in northwestern Iran. A sensitivity analysis of the results of MCGDM was done by changing the degree of optimism of the decision-makers. The results of sensitivity analysis showed the dependence of the rankings to the optimism degrees of the decision-makers. The 3-parameter Weibull (WBL3) and Pearson type 3 (PE3) distributions had the best results for Mahabad River flood data. A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to test the ability of the models. It was concluded from the findings of the simulation that the PE3 distribution is the most appropriate for short sample sizes, while WBL3 is preferable for larger sample sizes.
Starting Page	3957
Ending Page	3974
Page Count	18
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09204741
Journal	Water Resources Management
Volume Number	28
Issue Number	12
e-ISSN	15731650
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2014-06-27
Publisher Institution	European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Group decision making Flood frequency analysis Probability distribution Model selection criteria Aggregation operator Monte Carlo simulation Hydrogeology Hydrology/Water Resources Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Atmospheric Sciences Civil Engineering Environment
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Water Science and Technology Civil and Structural Engineering

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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