NDLI: Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Regional Trends and Shift Changes of Autocorrelated Temperature Series in Urmia Lake Basin

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Malekian, Arash Kazemzadeh, Majid
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Recently, the Urmia Lake located in northwestern Iran which is the second largest hyper saline in the world suffers from the significant fluctuations of water level and surface area. The current study tries to investigate the spatiotemporal trends of mean (T$_{mean}$), maximum (T$_{max}$) and minimum (T$_{min}$) temperatures of monthly, seasonal and annual time-series. To do so, the data of 15 temperature gauge stations within the Urmia Lake basin, for the period 1972–2011 was employed. The pre-whitening approach was applied to remove the effects of serial correlation in the air temperature series based on the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. The results of Ljung-Box test showed positive serial correlation in the T$_{mean}$ and T$_{max}$ series for all of the stations at the 0.05 significance level. In the monthly series, the significant warming trends in the T$_{mean}$ series were more perceptible than the same ones in T$_{max}$ series; however, T$_{max}$ trend was found more than T$_{min}$ series. The Mann–Whitney (MW) test detected a significance upward shift changes in the annual T$_{mean}$, T$_{max}$ and T$_{min}$ series of about 86, 73 and 80 % of the stations, respectively. The average magnitude of significant warming trends in annual T$_{mean}$, T$_{max}$ and T$_{min}$ series were (+) 0.58 °C, (+) 0.52 °C and (+) 0.69 °C per decade, respectively. Furthermore, the interpolation maps showed that warming trends in the east and west of Urmia Lake were more than southern area. Therefore, the results showed that the basin has suffered from increasing trends in the T$_{mean}$, T$_{max}$ and T$_{min}$ over the recent decades. Finally, significant changes were found in 1980s and 1990s based on the Mann-Kendall ranks and change point tests. In this study, it is interesting that the period of significant changes in warming trends were close to the beginning of decreasing water level of the Lake.
Starting Page	785
Ending Page	803
Page Count	19
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09204741
Journal	Water Resources Management
Volume Number	30
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	15731650
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2015-11-11
Publisher Institution	European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Climate variability Trend Serial correlation Urmia Lake Temperature series Hydrogeology Hydrology/Water Resources Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Atmospheric Sciences Civil Engineering Environment
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Water Science and Technology Civil and Structural Engineering

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