NDLI: An Integrated Approach for Partitioning the Effect of Climate Change and Human Activities on Surface Runoff

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Zhan, Chesheng Zeng, Sidong Jiang, Shanshan Wang, Huixiao Ye, Wen
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	Climate change and human activities have been identified as the two main reasons for the change in runoff. To better understand the factors causing runoff change, this paper develops an integrated approach which combined the elasticity coefficient approach (including a non-parametric model and six Budyko framework based models) and the hydrological modelling approach (using SIMHYD models) for partitioning the impacts of climate change and human activities on surface runoff. The Guanzhong River Basin(GRB), which is the sub-basin of the Wei River basin in China is chosen as the study area. In this study, trends in runoff, rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) from 1958 to 2008 are analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and change-points in the annual runoff from 1958 to 2008 are sought using the Fu formula, Mann-Kendall test and double mass curve. The calibrated and validated rainfall-runoff model SIMHYD is used to simulate the runoff in the GRB during 1958–2008. Seven different methods are used to calculate the elasticity coefficient and then the elasticity coefficient methods are used to evaluate the contribution of climate change and human activities. Combining all these results, the contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff change is 34.1 ~ 47.3 and 52.7 ~ 65.9 %, respectively. The study provides scientific foundation for understanding the causes of water resources decrease and significant information for water resources management under the influence of climate change and human activities.
Starting Page	3843
Ending Page	3858
Page Count	16
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09204741
Journal	Water Resources Management
Volume Number	28
Issue Number	11
e-ISSN	15731650
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2014-07-02
Publisher Institution	European Water Resources Association (EWRA)
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Climate change Human activities Runoff Hydrological model Elasticity coefficients Hydrogeology Hydrology/Water Resources Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences Atmospheric Sciences Civil Engineering Environment
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Water Science and Technology Civil and Structural Engineering

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