NDLI: Assessment of the statistical significance of global changes in the annual river runoff in XXI century due to possible anthropogenic warming of climate

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Dobrovolski, S. G.
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	A number of uncertainties of forecasts of changes in the annual runoff depths at global scale, obtained using information on results of integration of 21 IPCC climate models is studied. Following possible errors of these forecasts are calculated: errors of models; differences between main (IPCC) scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and resultant changes of global temperatures; mistakes in estimates of average long-term observed values of the runoff depths for the “control” period. Global maps of a “significance index” of forecasted changes in the runoff depths (estimations of changes in the annual runoff depths divided by mean square root values of errors of these estimations) for 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 are presented. It is shown that the most significant global changes of the runoff depths (growth in the north of Eastern Siberia, of the Russian Far East, of North America, falling in the “Greater Mediterranean Region”) are predicted for the second quarter of 21st century. Further changes of the runoff amplify only in the Amazon basin (reduction, by 2075). Almost everywhere else (including almost all European territory of Russia, Western Siberia, south of Eastern Siberia and of the Far East) the significance of changes in the runoff depths during 21st century is negligible.
Starting Page	728
Ending Page	737
Page Count	10
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00978078
Journal	Water Resources
Volume Number	41
Issue Number	6
e-ISSN	1608344X
Language	English
Publisher	Pleiades Publishing
Publisher Date	2014-11-06
Publisher Place	Moscow
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	climate models global warming river runoff forecasting Hydrogeology Hydrology/Water Resources Waste Water Technology Water Pollution Control Water Management Aquatic Pollution
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Water Science and Technology

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