NDLI: Shogenji’s measure of justification and the inverse conjunction fallacy

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Jönsson, Martin L. Assarsson, Elias
Copyright Year	2012
Abstract	This paper takes issue with a recent proposal due to Shogenji (Synthese 184:29–48, 2012). In his paper, Shogenji introduces J, a normatively motivated formal measure of justification (and of confirmation), and then proceeds to recruit it descriptively in an explanation of the conjunction fallacy. We argue that this explanation is undermined by the fact that it cannot be extended in any natural way to the inverse conjunction fallacy, a more recently discovered, closely related fallacy. We point out that since the inverse conjunction fallacy occurs in the absence of any form of explicit evidence, formal measures of confirmation such as J, are hard pressed to apply to it at all. We then proceed to argue that this problem with Shogenji’s measure is actually quite difficult to come to terms with; even if the situations where people commit the inverse conjunction fallacy are understood in such a way that the measure is applicable, it doesn’t seem possible to reasonably interpret these situations in such a way that the measure can explain the found response pattern.
Starting Page	3075
Ending Page	3085
Page Count	11
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00397857
Journal	Synthese
Volume Number	190
Issue Number	15
e-ISSN	15730964
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2012-05-19
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Conjunction fallacy Inverse conjunction fallacy Degree of confirmation Degree of Justification Bayesian epistemology Philosophy of Science Epistemology Logic Philosophy of Language Metaphysics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Philosophy Social Sciences

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