NDLI: Foreseeing Iron Ore Prices Using System Thinking and Scenario Planning

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Morandi, Maria Isabel Wolf Motta Rodrigues, Luis Henrique Lacerda, Daniel Pacheco Pergher, Isaac
Copyright Year	2013
Abstract	In competitive and complex markets such as the commodities one, having the ability of planning scenarios and envisioning the behavior of prices in each of them, constitutes a competitive advantage for organizations. Within this context, this research aims at developing a method for the understanding of the key factors that impact the pricing of commodities through a systemic approach, allowing the estimation/evaluation of future prices in different scenarios. Action research was used as research methodology, which is characterized by the principles of collaborative and continuous learning. In order to implement the objectives of this research, an adaptation of the Systems Thinking and Scenario Planning method was developed and implemented in an industry of the iron ore market. The first phase led to the understanding of the main variables associated to the price; in the second phase, this learning was materialized in a system dynamic computational model, which was used in the third and final stage for the estimation/evaluation of future prices in some alternative scenarios. Interviews were conducted in parallel with the quantitative evaluation, in order to obtain subsidies for acceptance and refinement of the proposed method. The results obtained, the learning reported and the possible applications identified for the use of the model indicate that the proposed method allows for the understanding of the pricing of commodities through the systems thinking and the planning by scenarios.
Starting Page	287
Ending Page	306
Page Count	20
File Format	PDF
ISSN	1094429X
Journal	Systemic Practice and Action Research
Volume Number	27
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	15739295
Language	English
Publisher	Springer US
Publisher Date	2013-01-31
Publisher Place	Boston
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Systems thinking Scenario planning Pricing Commodities Business/Management Science Methodology of the Social Sciences Organization/Planning Sociology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Strategy and Management Management of Technology and Innovation

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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