NDLI: Prediction of Solar Cycle Maximum Using Solar Cycle Lengths

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Kane, R. P.
Copyright Year	2008
Abstract	If the rise time RT, fall time FT, and total time TT (i.e., RT+FT) of a solar cycle are compared against the maximum amplitude Rz(max ) for the following cycle, then only the association between TT and Rz(max ) is inferred to be well anticorrelated, inferring that the larger (smaller) the value of Rz(max ) for the following cycle, the shorter (longer) the TT of the preceding cycle. Although the inferred correlation (−0.68) is statistically significant, the inferred standard error of estimate is quite large, so predictions using the inferred correlation are not very precise. Removal of cycle pairs 15/16, 19/20, and 20/21 (statistical outliers) yields a regression that is highly statistically significant (−0.85) and reduces the standard error of estimate by 18%. On the basis of the adjusted regression and presuming TT=140 months for cycle 23, the present ongoing cycle, cycle 24’s 90% prediction interval for Rz(max ) is estimated to be about 94±44, inferring only a 5% probability that its Rz(max ) will be larger than about 140, unless of course cycle pair 23/24 is a statistical outlier.
Starting Page	203
Ending Page	209
Page Count	7
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00380938
Journal	Solar Physics
Volume Number	248
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	1573093X
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2008-02-03
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Astrophysics Extraterrestrial Physics, Space Sciences Astronomy
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Astronomy and Astrophysics Space and Planetary Science

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