NDLI: Using Statistical Multivariable Models to Understand the Relationship Between Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejecta and Magnetic Flux Ropes

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Riley, P. Richardson, I. G.
Copyright Year	2012
Abstract	In-situ measurements of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) display a wide range of properties. A distinct subset, “magnetic clouds” (MCs), are readily identifiable by a smooth rotation in an enhanced magnetic field, together with an unusually low solar wind proton temperature. In this study, we analyze Ulysses spacecraft measurements to systematically investigate five possible explanations for why some ICMEs are observed to be MCs and others are not: i) An observational selection effect; that is, all ICMEs do in fact contain MCs, but the trajectory of the spacecraft through the ICME determines whether the MC is actually encountered; ii) interactions of an erupting flux rope (FR) with itself or between neighboring FRs, which produce complex structures in which the coherent magnetic structure has been destroyed; iii) an evolutionary process, such as relaxation to a low plasma-β state that leads to the formation of an MC; iv) the existence of two (or more) intrinsic initiation mechanisms, some of which produce MCs and some that do not; or v) MCs are just an easily identifiable limit in an otherwise continuous spectrum of structures. We apply quantitative statistical models to assess these ideas. In particular, we use the Akaike information criterion (AIC) to rank the candidate models and a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to uncover any intrinsic clustering of the data. Using a logistic regression, we find that plasma-β, CME width, and the ratio O $^{7}$/O $^{6}$ are the most significant predictor variables for the presence of an MC. Moreover, the propensity for an event to be identified as an MC decreases with heliocentric distance. These results tend to refute ideas ii) and iii). GMM clustering analysis further identifies three distinct groups of ICMEs; two of which match (at the 86 % level) with events independently identified as MCs, and a third that matches with non-MCs (68 % overlap). Thus, idea v) is not supported. Choosing between ideas i) and iv) is more challenging, since they may effectively be indistinguishable from one another by a single in-situ spacecraft. We offer some suggestions on how future studies may address this.
Starting Page	217
Ending Page	233
Page Count	17
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00380938
Journal	Solar Physics
Volume Number	284
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	1573093X
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2012-05-17
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Coronal mass ejections Magnetic flux ropes Magnetic clouds Astrophysics and Astroparticles Atmospheric Sciences Extraterrestrial Physics, Space Sciences
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Astronomy and Astrophysics Space and Planetary Science

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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