NDLI: Modeling of Sunspot Numbers by a Modified Binary Mixture of Laplace Distribution Functions

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Sabarinath, A. Anilkumar, A. K.
Copyright Year	2008
Abstract	This paper presents a new approach for describing the shape of 11-year sunspot cycles by considering the monthly averaged values. This paper also brings out a prediction model based on the analysis of 22 sunspot cycles from the year 1749 onward. It is found that the shape of the sunspot cycles with monthly averaged values can be described by a functional form of modified binary mixture of Laplace density functions, modified suitably by introducing two additional parameters in the standard functional form. The six parameters, namely two locations, two scales, and two area parameters, characterize this model. The nature of the estimated parameters for the sunspot cycles from 1749 onward has been analyzed and finally we arrived at a sufficient set of the parameters for the proposed model. It is seen that this model picks up the sunspot peaks more closely than any other model without losing the match at other places at the same time. The goodness of fit for the proposed model is also computed with the Hathaway – Wilson – Reichmann $\overline{\chi}$ measure, which shows, on average, that the fitted model passes within 0.47 standard deviations of the actual averaged monthly sunspot numbers.
Starting Page	183
Ending Page	197
Page Count	15
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00380938
Journal	Solar Physics
Volume Number	250
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	1573093X
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2008-06-17
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Extraterrestrial Physics, Space Sciences Meteorology/Climatology Astrophysics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Astronomy and Astrophysics Space and Planetary Science

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