NDLI: Performance of Major Flare Watches from the Max Millennium Program (2001

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Bloomfield, D. S. Gallagher, P. T. Marquette, W. H. Milligan, R. O. Canfield, R. C.
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	The physical processes that trigger solar flares are not well understood, and significant debate remains around processes governing particle acceleration, energy partition, and particle and energy transport. Observations at high resolution in energy, time, and space are required in multiple energy ranges over the whole course of many flares to build an understanding of these processes. Obtaining high-quality, co-temporal data from ground- and space- based instruments is crucial to achieving this goal and was the primary motivation for starting the Max Millennium program and Major Flare Watch (MFW) alerts, aimed at coordinating observations of all flares ≥ X1 GOES X-ray classification (including those partially occulted by the limb). We present a review of the performance of MFWs from 1 February 2001 to 31 May 2010, inclusive, which finds that (1) 220 MFWs were issued in 3407 days considered (6.5 % duty cycle), with these occurring in 32 uninterrupted periods that typically last 2 – 8 days; (2) 56% of flares ≥ X1 were caught, occurring in 19 % of MFW days; (3) MFW periods ended at suitable times, but substantial gain could have been achieved in percentage of flares caught if periods had started 24 h earlier; (4) MFWs successfully forecast X-class flares with a true skill statistic (TSS) verification metric score of 0.500, that is comparable to a categorical flare/no-flare interpretation of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Centre probabilistic forecasts (TSS = 0.488).
Starting Page	411
Ending Page	427
Page Count	17
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00380938
Journal	Solar Physics
Volume Number	291
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	1573093X
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2016-01-04
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Active regions, magnetic fields Flares, forecasting Flares, relation to magnetic field Magnetic fields, photosphere Sunspots, statistics Astrophysics and Astroparticles Atmospheric Sciences Extraterrestrial Physics, Space Sciences
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Astronomy and Astrophysics Space and Planetary Science

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
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3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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