NDLI: Real-Time Solar Wind Prediction Based on SDO/AIA Coronal Hole Data

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Rotter, T. Veronig, A. M. Temmer, M. Vršnak, B.
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	We present an empirical model based on the visible area covered by coronal holes close to the central meridian with the aim to predict the solar wind speed at 1 AU with a lead time of up to four days in advance with a time resolution of one hour. Linear prediction functions are used to relate coronal hole areas to solar wind speed. The function parameters are automatically adapted by using the information from the previous three Carrington Rotations. Thus the algorithm automatically reacts to the changes of the solar wind speed during different phases of the solar cycle. The adaptive algorithm was applied to and tested on SDO/AIA-193 Å observations and ACE measurements during the years 2011 – 2013, covering 41 Carrington Rotations. The solar wind needs on average 4.02±0.5 days to reach Earth. The algorithm produces good predictions for the 156 solar wind high-speed streams peak amplitudes with correlation coefficients of cc≈0.60. For 80 % of the peaks, the predicted arrival matches the ACE in situ measurements within a time window of 0.5 days. The same algorithm, using linear predictions, was also applied to predict the magnetic field strength in wind streams originating from coronal hole areas, but it did not give reliable predictions (cc≈0.15).
Starting Page	1355
Ending Page	1370
Page Count	16
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00380938
Journal	Solar Physics
Volume Number	290
Issue Number	5
e-ISSN	1573093X
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Netherlands
Publisher Date	2015-04-15
Publisher Place	Dordrecht
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Solar Cycle Coronal holes Solar wind Astrophysics and Astroparticles Atmospheric Sciences Extraterrestrial Physics, Space Sciences
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Astronomy and Astrophysics Space and Planetary Science

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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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